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Independiente – Deportivo Riestra2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Independiente
1.18
Total xG
1.88
Deportivo Riestra
0.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Independiente | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 0.6 season average) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Santiago Montiel not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 43% available) | ||
| Mariano Bracamonte on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexander Díaz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 78% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Independiente is 5th with 24 points from 16 games, Deportivo Riestra is 15th with 11 points
- Home/Away: Independiente scores 1.2 goals per game at home, Deportivo Riestra 0.2 per game away
Risks
- Form: Independiente is winless in the last 5 games with 3 draws and 2 losses
- Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra won the last meeting 2-0
All probabilities
Result
Independiente46%
Draw34%
Deportivo Riestra20%
Double chance
Independiente or draw80%
Deportivo Riestra or draw54%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.558%
Under 1.542%
Over 2.529%
Under 2.571%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.18 : 0.70, rounded up only from .916% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
17%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Independiente: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Independiente 4-3-3 · Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2
Independiente
- 77 S. Mele Castanero
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 36 S. Valdez
- 35 J. Arrayago
- 5 N. Banegas
- 16 M. Curci
- 23 I. Marcone
- 8 M. Meza
- 11 I. Machuca
- 6 L. Ávila
- 24 J. Palais
Deportivo Riestra
- 1 I. Arce
- 40 G. Obredor
- 24 F. Miño
- 19 J. Randazzo
- 22 C. Paz
- 5 P. Ramírez
- 8 M. Céliz
- 16 N. Watson
- 27 J. Goitía
- 7 A. Alonso Espinoza
- 29 M. Graneros
Substitutes
- 14 G. Millán
- 10 L. Cabral
- 9 I. Morales Bravo
- 22 F. Zavala
- 19 M. Abaldo Menyou
- 13 J. Fedorco
- 29 L. Godoy
- 33 R. Rey
- 30 T. Parmo
- 34 F.Tempone
- 20 F. Cruz
- 2 F. Calderón
- 21 T. González
- 11 A. Díaz
- 9 G. Benegas
- 36 M. Bracamonte
- 3 E. Tovo
- 18 B. Pérez
- 6 I. Gariglio
- 20 T. Lauro
- 10 B. Sánchez
- 23 M. Arzamendia Espinoza
- 17 ?. Almada
- 37 D. Ganly
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