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Instituto – Newell's Old Boys2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Instituto
1.33
Total xG
2.21
Newell's Old Boys
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Instituto | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Alex Luna on the bench (7 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Jeremías Lázaro not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Leonel Mosevich not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Fernando Alarcón on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Matías Tissera on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jonatan Galván on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 44% available) | ||
| Matías Cóccaro not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Facundo Guch on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Walter Mazzantti on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Herrera not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Instituto with 3 wins from their last 5 games, Newell's Old Boys with 1 win
- Home/Away: Instituto average 1.53 goals per game at home in the league, Newell's Old Boys concede 1.47 per game away
- Table: Instituto are 9th in the league with 21 points from 16 games, Newell's Old Boys are 14th with 15 points
Risks
- xG: Instituto generated 1.16 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 2.2 goals per game
- Defense: Newell's Old Boys conceded 0.6 goals per game in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Instituto46%
Draw31%
Newell's Old Boys23%
Double chance
Instituto or draw77%
Newell's Old Boys or draw54%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.34 : 0.88, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Instituto: first goal in 11 of 11 games (100%)
- Instituto: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Newell's Old Boys: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Instituto: 76% of all goals in the second half (16 of 21, last 12 games)
- Newell's Old Boys: 55% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 11)
- Instituto: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 21)
Lineups
Instituto 3-4-2-1 · Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
Instituto
- 29 M. Ledesma
- 22 A. Massaccesi
- 32 A. Bravo
- 3 D. Sosa
- 44 G. Cerato
- 55 G. Abregú
- 15 M. Gallardo
- 23 J. Meli
- 20 J. Córdoba Mosquera
- 8 H. Acevedo
- 9 F. Suárez
Newell's Old Boys
- 30 J. Reinatti Balansino
- 6 M. Ortega
- 23 N. Goitea
- 22 O. Salomón
- 28 J. Russo
- 27 L. Gómez
- 5 L. Regiardo
- 32 S. Solari
- 15 A. Soñora
- 33 W. Núñez
- 99 J. Ramírez Polero
Substitutes
- 17 M. Tissera
- 19 L. Sanseviero
- 7 N. Guerra
- 30 J. Galván
- 13 J. Méndez
- 2 H. De La Fuente
- 11 M. Fonseca
- 6 F. Alarcón
- 10 A. Luna
- 35 E. Sittaro Miranda
- 14 W. Viera Caballero
- 19 J. Gómez Mattar
- 8 D. Sotelo
- 20 F. Guch
- 7 W. Mazzantti
- 21 G. Arias Arroyo
- 3 M. Luciano
- 4 A. Montero
- 16 L. Carrizo
- 36 F. Scarpeccio
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