Match report →
Barracas Central – Racing Club2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Barracas Central
1.22
Total xG
2.33
Racing Club
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Barracas Central | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Norberto Briasco on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adrián Martínez not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 69% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Barracas Central has 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 games, Racing Club has 2 wins and 2 losses
- Shots: Barracas Central averaged 7 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Racing Club 4.2
Risks
- Head-to-head: Racing Club won 2 of the 4 meetings, Barracas Central 1
- Table: Racing Club is 8th in the league with 21 points from 16 games, Barracas Central is 9th on equal points
All probabilities
Result
Barracas Central37%
Draw32%
Racing Club32%
Double chance
Barracas Central or draw69%
Racing Club or draw63%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.22 : 1.11, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Barracas Central: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Barracas Central: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Barracas Central: 83% of all goals in the second half (10 of 12, last 12 games)
- Barracas Central: 42% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 12)
- Racing Club: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Barracas Central 4-2-3-1 · Racing Club 4-3-3
Barracas Central
- 1 J. Espínola González
- 13 R. Barrios
- 2 N. Capraro
- 15 Y. Rak Barragán
- 6 R. Insúa
- 5 D. Miloc
- 10 I. Tapia
- 28 R. Bogarín Giménez
- 8 T. Porra
- 24 E. Taborda
- 34 N. Orsini
Racing Club
- 25 F. Cambeses
- 4 E. Cannavo
- 2 M. Pérez
- 43 G. Escudero
- 19 I. Rodríguez
- 46 A. Tello
- 5 C. Kranevitter
- 20 G. Lodico
- 11 F. Zaracho
- 22 E. Torres
- 17 T. Conechny
Substitutes
- 23 W. Rivera
- 35 E. Rolón
- 17 E. Pereyra
- 38 J. Insúa
- 36 T. Lavezzi
- 29 M. Duarte
- 4 D. Martínez
- 37 G. Campi
- 11 N. Briasco Belekyan
- 20 J. Candia Hernández
- 77 F. Bruera
- 16 I. Guaraz
- 14 J. Barinaga
- 30 M. Tagliamonte
- 7 D. Vergara Hernández
- 23 N. Colombo
- 24 A. Fernández
- 16 D. Ortegoza
- 32 L. Díaz
- 33 L. Pérez
- 31 B. González
- 40 F. Fraga
- 42 G. Volpe
- 27 L. Córdoba
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