Match report →
Argentinos Juniors – Huracán0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Argentinos Juniors
1.30
Total xG
2.19
Huracán
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentinos Juniors | Huracán |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.63 | |
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.41 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Tomás Molina on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Francisco Álvarez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Juan Bisanz on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Gil on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Argentinos Juniors won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Huracán lost 4
- Home/Away: Argentinos Juniors conceded 0.5 goals per match at home in 18 league games, Huracán scored 0.76 per match away
- Standings: Argentinos Juniors are 3rd with 29 points from 16 matches, Huracán are 7th with 22 points
Risks
- Shots: Huracán averaged 14 shots per match in their last 5 games, compared to 11.8 by Argentinos Juniors
- Away: Huracán conceded 0.94 goals per match in 17 away league games this season
All probabilities
Result
Argentinos Juniors44%
Draw32%
Huracán24%
Double chance
Argentinos Juniors or draw76%
Huracán or draw56%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.30 : 0.90, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
13%
1:0
13%
2:0
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Huracán with Jordy Caicedo starting: 1.1 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (25/5 games, last 30)
- Argentinos Juniors: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Argentinos Juniors: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 13)
- Huracán: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Argentinos Juniors 4-3-3 · Huracán 3-1-4-2
Argentinos Juniors
- 25 B. Cortés Fernández
- 17 F. Paredes
- 23 M. Mendoza
- 4 E. Godoy
- 20 S. Prieto
- 5 Facundo Carrizo
- 15 K. Gutiérrez
- 11 N. Oroz
- 7 D. Rodrigo Porcel
- 9 G. Verón
- 19 M. Giménez Rojas
Huracán
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 4 F. Vera
- 21 H. Nervo
- 35 M. Palazzo
- 15 F. Waller Martiarena
- 7 O. Cortés Cortés
- 2 L. Blondel
- 24 F. Kalinger di Napoli
- 25 C. Ibáñez
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
- 33 B. Barticciotto
Substitutes
- 30 A. Núñez Duarte
- 48 F. Jainikoski
- 22 K. Coronel Alarcón
- 27 T. Molina
- 12 G. Siri Payer
- 32 G. Infantino
- 28 J. Gho
- 10 C. Florentín
- 26 C. Bravo
- 8 H. López Muñoz
- 13 S. Gianini
- 35 A. Alcaraz
- 20 P. Ojeda
- 8 L. Gil
- 11 T. Peralta Ortiz
- 10 Ó. Romero Villamayor
- 34 I. Campo
- 17 J. Bisanz
- 32 S. Meza
- 19 L. Lescano
- 23 I. Pussetto
- 5 R. Fernández Cedrés
- 49 T. Natanael Uribe Sanders
- 46 F. Martínez
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