Match report →
Tigre – Sarmiento1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tigre
1.77
Total xG
2.49
Sarmiento
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigre | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.62 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ignacio Russo on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Julián Contrera on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Cristian Zabala on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jhon Rentería not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Santiago Salle not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Sarmiento concedes 1.87 goals per game away in the league this season, Tigre 0.87 at home
- Possession: Tigre averaged 58.8% possession in recent games, Sarmiento 37%
Risks
- Form: Tigre recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Tigre61%
Draw26%
Sarmiento13%
Double chance
Tigre or draw87%
Sarmiento or draw39%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.77 : 0.72, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sarmiento: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Tigre: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Sarmiento: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Julián Mavilla: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Sarmiento: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Tigre: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Tigre 4-4-2 · Sarmiento 4-2-3-1
Tigre
- 12 F. Zenobio
- 50 I. Peluffo
- 23 G. Requena
- 20 A. Barrionuevo
- 24 F. Álvarez
- 22 S. López Grobin
- 8 M. Garay
- 10 J. Saralegui
- 11 T. Serrago
- 28 G. Martínez
- 30 J. Domina
Sarmiento
- 12 T. Ayala
- 29 T. Santamaría
- 6 G. Arturia
- 3 L. Suárez Scalarea
- 33 G. Díaz
- 23 E. Giménez
- 16 M. Martínez
- 21 J. Mavilla
- 5 M. García
- 11 G. González
- 27 J. Marabel Jara
Substitutes
- 33 M. Méndez Acosta
- 21 S. Medina
- 29 I. Russo Cordero
- 32 J. Villalba
- 17 G. Soto Arredondo
- 15 A. Marchese
- 18 M. Fernández
- 25 I. Subiabre
- 40 L. Minniti
- 26 L. Morales
- 36 Lucian Carracedo
- 45 Román Pesolilla
- 36 R. Maisterra
- 24 J. Herrera
- 26 Y. Arismendi
- 77 N. Pasquini
- 7 P. Magnín
- 9 D. Churín
- 19 J. Contrera
- 20 U. Giménez
- 35 F. Alaggia
- 1 I. Arboleda
- 17 A. Nadruz Blanco
- 37 Agustín Méndez
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