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Rosario Central – Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Rosario Central
2.08
Total xG
2.71
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rosario Central | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.89 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.70 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1 vs 0.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Ángel Di María not in squad (11 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Gabriel Alanís on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Mauro Valiente not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 37% available) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Rosario Central score 1.53 league goals per game at home, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0.4 per game away
- Form: Rosario Central have 4 wins in their last 5 games, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto have 4 losses in their last 5 games
- Tactics: Rosario Central averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 2.4 per game
Risks
- xG: Rosario Central allowed 1.22 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 0.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Rosario Central70%
Draw21%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto9%
Double chance
Rosario Central or draw91%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw30%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.08 : 0.63, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
10%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rosario Central: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aldosivi: 2 goals (85', 87')
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 4-4-1-1
Rosario Central
- 23 J. Ledesma
- 32 E. Coronel
- 46 I. Ovando
- 13 G. Ávila
- 3 A. Sández
- 5 F. Ibarra
- 20 V. Pizarro Durcudoy
- 18 J. Fernández
- 88 A. Rodríguez Guaglianoni
- 8 J. Campaz
- 22 E. Copetti
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- 12 F. Gualtieri
- 14 G. Gonzalez
- 30 S. Ojeda
- 29 A. Quiroga
- 23 F. Rodríguez
- 35 F.Gallardo
- 15 L. Cepeha
- 5 A. Cabrera
- 99 J. Chala Castillo
- 10 T. González
- 77 I. Hesar
Substitutes
- 10 F. Cervi
- 1 A. Werner
- 33 A. Soto
- 9 M. Ruben Rodríguez
- 24 J. Giménez
- 6 J. Komar
- 19 S. Segovia
- 15 F. Mallo Blanco
- 42 E. Verón
- 16 T. Badaloni
- 7 M. Cabrera
- 2 S. Zaracho
- 4 V. Fenoglio
- 3 L. Baños
- 38 L. Herrera
- 18 J. Rivero
- 47 B. Pieroni
- 86 M. Pagliaricci
- 24 T. Escobar
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