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Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Independiente Rivadavia1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
1.16
Total xG
2.37
Independiente Rivadavia
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Luciano Cingolani on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matías Fernández on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Luciano Gómez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Leonard Costa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sheyko Studer on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza concedes 0.87 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Away: Independiente Rivadavia scores 0.87 goals per game away in the league this season
Risks
- Table: Independiente Rivadavia ranks 1st in the league with 34 points from 16 matches
- Attack: Independiente Rivadavia scores 1.56 goals per game in the league this season, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1.0 per game
All probabilities
Result
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza33%
Draw31%
Independiente Rivadavia36%
Double chance
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza or draw64%
Independiente Rivadavia or draw67%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.16 : 1.21, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
11%
0:1
10%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: 8 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Álex Arce: 5 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza with Esteban Fernández starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (20/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 5-3-2 · Independiente Rivadavia 4-4-2
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- 23 C. Rigamonti
- 32 L. Paredes
- 42 L. Carrera
- 4 E. Muñoz
- 16 G. Guiffrey
- 3 M. Recalde
- 30 E. Fernández
- 21 F. Antonini
- 26 F. Lencioni
- 17 I. Sabatini Charparin
- 9 A. Módica
Independiente Rivadavia
- 30 N. Bolcato
- 28 A. Vigo
- 40 I. Villalba Chamorro
- 13 A. Osella
- 3 J. Elordi
- 11 G. Ríos
- 5 T. Bottari
- 25 J. Florentín Bobadilla
- 8 L. Bucca
- 43 F. Sartori Prieto
- 9 A. Arce Barrios
Substitutes
- 8 M. Vargas Martín
- 11 S. Rodríguez
- 22 J. Franco Arrellaga
- 15 U. Sánchez
- 28 T. O'Connor
- 10 N. Romano Di Marco
- 33 O. Andrada
- 5 N. Barboza
- 7 L. Cingolani
- 31 L. Petruchi
- 25 M. Úbeda James
- 41 G. Patritti
- 10 M. Fernández
- 21 E. Gómez Riga
- 27 D. Mayans
- 36 E. Bonifacio
- 32 K. Vázquez
- 19 R. Atencio
- 7 V. Ramis
- 42 S. Studer
- 77 L. Sequeira
- 34 S. Moreyra
- 80 M. Reali
- 23 L. Díaz
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