Match report →
San Lorenzo – Platense0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
San Lorenzo
1.11
Total xG
2.16
Platense
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Lorenzo | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.2 goals/match) | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Rodrigo Auzmendi not in squad (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Bautista Merlini not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Guido Mainero on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Both teams recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
- Goals: San Lorenzo average 0.75 goals per match in the league this season, Platense 0.84 per match
Risks
- Table: San Lorenzo are 7th in the league with 22 points from 16 matches, Platense 12th with 16 points
- xG: Platense generated 1.85 xG per match across 5 matches with xG data, San Lorenzo 0.98 per match
All probabilities
Result
San Lorenzo35%
Draw33%
Platense32%
Double chance
San Lorenzo or draw68%
Platense or draw65%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.11 : 1.06, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
13%
1:0
11%
0:1
10%
2:1
7%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Platense: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- San Lorenzo: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- San Lorenzo: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Platense: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Platense: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
San Lorenzo 3-4-2-1 · Platense 4-2-3-1
San Lorenzo
- 25 J. Devecchi
- 16 G. Corujo Bríccola
- 2 D. Arboleda Hurtado
- 42 F. Lorenzón
- 24 N. Tripichio
- 27 M. Río
- 10 F. Gulli
- 3 T. Rodríguez Pagano
- 14 A. Ladstatter
- 38 F. Farías
- 9 A. Cuello
Platense
- 30 J. Cozzani
- 4 A. Lagos
- 34 M. Mendia
- 31 V. Cuesta
- 3 T. Silva
- 26 P. Ferreira
- 15 F. Amarfil
- 43 N. Retamar
- 10 F. Zapiola
- 33 J. Gauto
- 99 G. Lencina
Substitutes
- 19 E. Amor
- 32 E. Herrera
- 6 M. De Ritis Serrentino
- 35 A. Cordoba
- 20 F. Altamirano
- 36 D. Herrera
- 8 C. Insaurralde
- 21 G. Del Prete
- 54 N. Blanco
- 37 T. Perugini
- 79 B. Sepúlveda
- 21 A. Lotti
- 27 S. Dalmasso
- 1 B. Bustos
- 13 I. Vázquez
- 5 I. Gómez
- 6 E. Raggio
- 25 J. Saborido
- 7 G. Mainero
- 38 A. Ingenthron
- 16 G. Togni
- 11 N. López Alonso
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →