🇧🇷

Serie A

Botafogo - Vitória

07/23/2026, 10:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Botafogo
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Vitória
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BOTVIT

Botafogo

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.06
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04

Vitória

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.34
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.31
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Vitória with Baralhas : 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Botafogo with Vitinho: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Botafogo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Vitória: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage for the hosts: Botafogo's strong home attack (1.89 goals avg) faces Vitória's highly vulnerable away defense conceding 3.67 goals on average
  • Tactical approach: Botafogo recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per match with a counter-oriented style of play
  • Historical stalemate trend: All 4 previous league encounters between these two teams have ended in a draw
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Botafogo concede 1.78 goals per match on average and have managed only 1 clean sheet all season
  • Declining scoring form: Botafogo's goal production has slowed down recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.83
Overview

Botafogo (10th place, 25 points) host Vitória (12th place, 25 points) at the Estádio Nilton Santos

Serie A match on July 23, 2026, 11:30 PM

A direct clash between two mid-table teams level on points

Form

Botafogo's form is DWDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They won their last home match 2-1 against Santos

Vitória head into the game with a DLWLW form

Both sides won their most recent league fixture

Statistics

Botafogo score an average of 1.89 goals per home game

Vitória concede a massive 3.67 goals per away match on average

Every home game of Botafogo so far saw over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

All 4 previous head-to-head encounters ended in a draw

Their last meeting finished in a 0-0 stalemate on November 9, 2025

The historic record between the two teams is completely even

Key Players

Arthur Cabral leads Botafogo with 7 season goals and showing a rising form trend

Matheus Martins has contributed 4 goals so far this season

Renê is Vitória's top threat with 5 goals in 11 appearances

Goalkeepers

Warleson guards the net for Botafogo, while Lucas Arcanjo plays for Vitória

Lucas Arcanjo has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio Nilton Santos

The venue has seen a high scoring average of 3.8 goals per match recently

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.