Match report →
Botafogo – Vitória0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
1.43
Total xG
2.37
Vitória
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage for the hosts: Botafogo's strong home attack (1.89 goals avg) faces Vitória's highly vulnerable away defense conceding 3.67 goals on average
- Tactical approach: Botafogo recently averaged 5.8 shots on target per match with a counter-oriented style of play
- Historical stalemate trend: All 4 previous league encounters between these two teams have ended in a draw
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Botafogo concede 1.78 goals per match on average and have managed only 1 clean sheet all season
- Declining scoring form: Botafogo's goal production has slowed down recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.83
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo47%
Draw30%
Vitória23%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw77%
Vitória or draw53%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Vitória with Baralhas : 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Botafogo with Vitinho: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Botafogo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Vitória: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Botafogo 4-2-3-1 · Vitória 4-1-4-1
Botafogo
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 2 V. da Silva
- 34 E. Justino
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 13 A. Telles
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 6 C. Medina
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 13 R. Ramos Lima
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 6 L. Martínez
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Substitutes
- 29 P. da Silva
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 37 K. Barria
- 8 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 14 J. Barrera Herrera
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 23 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 33 L. Monzón
- 79 L. Emanuel
- 63 H. Garcia
- 70 F. de Souza Silva
- 79 R. de Souza
- 23 F. do Rosário dos Santos
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 2 E. Brítez
- 8 T. Pochettino
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →