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Serie A

Bahia - Chapecoense

07/17/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Bahia
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Chapecoense
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
BAHCHA

Bahia

Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 20, 14 places gap)
+0.11
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Luciano Juba on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Jean Lucas on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Everton Ribeiro   on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.96
Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.34
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 6, 14 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Carvalheira not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Bahia: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Chapecoense with Marcos Vinícius: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Bahia: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 5
    Bahia: 60% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Only 46% of goal threat available, without Luciano Juba, Jean Lucas, Everton Ribeiro
  • Bahia recently dominated possession with an average of 58% and 5.4 shots on target
  • Clear table advantage: Sixth-placed Bahia hosts bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense
Risk Factors
  • Chapecoense concedes an extremely high average of 3.25 goals per away game
  • Limited data available for head-to-head history
Overview

Bahia hosts Chapecoense at the Arena Fonte Nova

Serie A match on July 18, 2026, 12:30 AM

Bahia sits in 6th place with 26 points, while Chapecoense is bottom of the table in 20th place with 9 points

The mathematical model favors Bahia with a 58% win probability

Form

Bahia has a mixed form of DLDLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Chapecoense is winless in 5 matches with a form of LDLLL and 3 consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Bahia scores an average of 1.47 goals per game and concedes 1.35

Chapecoense scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.94

Chapecoense's away defense is particularly weak, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per game

Matches at the Arena Fonte Nova have seen an average of 3.0 goals recently

Key Players

For Bahia, Willian José starts in attack, having scored 3 goals this season

Midfielder Erick has scored 2 goals and recently impressed with an average rating of 7.02

Erick Pulga starts on the wing and has provided 1 assist so far

Goalkeepers

Ronaldo has played 8 matches for Bahia this season with an average rating of 7.07, helping the team secure 4 clean sheets

Matheus is in the squad for Chapecoense without any appearances this season, with the team holding only 1 clean sheet overall

Influences

Bahia is stronger at home, scoring 14 goals in 10 home matches

All of the last 5 matches at the Arena Fonte Nova ended with both teams scoring

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