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Bahia – Chapecoense2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Bahia
1.71
Total xG
2.51
Chapecoense
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bahia | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.96 | |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 6, 14 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 20, 14 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Luciano Juba on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jean Lucas on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Everton Ribeiro on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Carvalheira not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Only 46% of goal threat available, without Luciano Juba, Jean Lucas, Everton Ribeiro
- Bahia recently dominated possession with an average of 58% and 5.4 shots on target
- Clear table advantage: Sixth-placed Bahia hosts bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense
Risks
- Chapecoense concedes an extremely high average of 3.25 goals per away game
- Limited data available for head-to-head history
All probabilities
Result
Bahia58%
Draw27%
Chapecoense16%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Bahia or draw84%
Chapecoense or draw42%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bahia: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- Bahia: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Chapecoense with Marcos Vinícius: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Bahia: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Bahia: 60% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 10)
Lineups
Bahia 4-3-3 · Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 31 R. Gómez
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 21 S. Ramos Mingo
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 12 W. da Silva
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
Chapecoense
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 2 M. da Silva Santos
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 97 Ênio
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
Substitutes
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 46 Luciano
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 27 E. Stum
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 25 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
- 57 K. Furquim
- 91 I. Neres dos Santos
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 33 B. dos Santos Covas
- 6 G. Piola Minozzo
- 26 E. Souza da Cruz
- 70 R. Hartmann Ricoldi
- 1 R. de Carvalho Santos
- 18 A. Cordeiro Pessôa Neto
- 17 V. Balieiro Lourenco de Carvalho
- 50 K. d. S. d. Jesus
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