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Serie A

Flamengo - Mirassol

09/02/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.9
Total xG
2.7
Mirassol
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FLAMIR

Flamengo

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.62
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.12
Giorgian de Arrascaeta on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)

Mirassol

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Eduardo  on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 94% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Flamengo: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Mirassol: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Samuel Lino: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Mirassol: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Mirassol: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

24%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

38%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Strong defensive edge: Flamengo concedes only 0.73 goals per home game, while Mirassol allows 2.00 goals on average away
  • Flamengo recently dominated with an average of 62% possession and 5.6 shots on target per match
  • The mathematical model predicts a high home win probability of 62%
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Key absences: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (3 goals, 3 assists) is missing for Flamengo, Eduardo (4 goals) for Mirassol
Overview

Flamengo (2nd place, 48 points) hosts Mirassol (16th place, 25 points) at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Serie A match on September 2, 2026, 11:30 PM

Clear favorite role for the home team in the battle for the top spot

Form

Flamengo is in solid shape with the form DWWLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Mirassol is struggling with the form WLLDD

The visitors managed only 1 win in their last 5 games

Statistics

Flamengo averages 2.00 goals scored per game and conceded just 0.73 goals per home match

The hosts have kept 10 clean sheets this season

Mirassol scores 1.11 goals on average away from home and concedes 2.00 goals per away game

The visitors have kept only 1 clean sheet throughout the entire season

Head-to-Head

Historical dominance for Flamengo with 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 encounters

The last head-to-head match on August 16, 2026 ended in a clear 5-1 victory for Flamengo

A total of 15 goals have been scored in this matchup so far

Key Players

Pedro leads the attack with 15 goals and 4 assists

Samuel Lino shines with 8 season goals and 7 assists

Jorge Carrascal dictates the midfield with 4 goals and 5 assists

Igor Formiga is a key defender with 4 goals and 2 assists

João Victor contributed 2 goals this season

Carlos Eduardo has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Agustín Rossi played 24 matches for Flamengo, keeping 10 clean sheets

Walter played 22 matches for Mirassol, keeping 1 clean sheet

Influences

Flamengo has strong home turf advantage with 22 home goals scored in 11 games

The legendary Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho offers a historic atmosphere on natural grass

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