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Flamengo – Mirassol2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
1.89
Total xG
2.69
Mirassol
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 2, 14 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 16, 14 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Eduardo on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 94% available) |
Key factors
- Strong defensive edge: Flamengo concedes only 0.73 goals per home game, while Mirassol allows 2.00 goals on average away
- Flamengo recently dominated with an average of 62% possession and 5.6 shots on target per match
- The mathematical model predicts a high home win probability of 62%
Risks
- High workload: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
- Key absences: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (3 goals, 3 assists) is missing for Flamengo, Eduardo (4 goals) for Mirassol
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo62%
Draw24%
Mirassol14%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw86%
Mirassol or draw38%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Flamengo: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Mirassol: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Samuel Lino: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Mirassol: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Mirassol: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Mirassol 5-4-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 6 R. da Silva
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 27 Denilson
- 55 G. Cazonatti
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
Substitutes
- 99 L. Pereira de Sousa
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 13 D. da Silva
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 11 E. Sousa Soares
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 12 V. Chuab Zamblauskas
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 23 A. Santana Rafael
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 18 E. Lira Nogueira
- 30 B. Santos de Oliveira
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
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