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Serie A

Athletico PR - Botafogo

03/29/2026, 10:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Athletico PR
1.8
Total xG
2.5
Botafogo
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
APBOT

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.54
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.52
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 18, 12 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Botafogo

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.93
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.67
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 6, 12 places gap)
-0.10
Danilo not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 69% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

24%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Strong Home Record: Athletico PR scores an average of 1.5 goals at home and concedes only 0.75 goals
  • Weak Away Defense: Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Mathematical Prediction: The analysis indicates a home win for Athletico PR with a 63% probability
Risk Factors
  • For Botafogo, Danilo is missing, only 69% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
  • Botafogo averages only 2.8 shots on target per game
  • Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Overview

Athletico PR (6th place, 13 points) host Botafogo (18th place, 6 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on March 29, 2026, 12:30 AM. Athletico PR are fighting for the top spots, while Botafogo are trying to move away from the relegation zone.

Form

Athletico PR's form across all competitions is LDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

Athletico PR won their last two matches consecutively

Botafogo's form across all competitions is LLLLW

They achieved 1 win and 4 losses in their last five fixtures

Botafogo recently secured a win

Statistics

Athletico PR scored an average of 1.43 goals per game and conceded 1 goal per game this season

At home, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 0.75 goals per home game

Athletico PR kept 2 clean sheets

Botafogo scored an average of 1.67 goals per game and conceded 2 goals per game this season

Away, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.25 goals per away game

Botafogo kept 1 clean sheet

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches across all competitions, Athletico PR has not registered a win

Botafogo won 1 match and 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Botafogo

The last encounter was won by Botafogo 0:1 on October 05, 2024

Botafogo has been the dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.91), Stiven Mendoza (3 goals, 0 assists, rating 6.90) and Julimar (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.73) are important attacking players

For Botafogo, Alexander Barboza (1 goal, 2 assists, rating 6.37), Arthur Cabral (1 goal, 1 assist, rating 7.04) and Alex Telles (1 goal, 0 assists, rating 6.52) stand out

Goalkeepers

Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos has 7 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.94

Athletico PR managed to keep 2 clean sheets

Botafogo's goalkeeper Raul has 3 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.96

Botafogo managed to keep 1 clean sheet

Influences

Athletico PR appears stronger at home, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game

Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game

No data on stadium or weather-related influences is available

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