Serie A
Athletico PR - Botafogo
03/29/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.5
0.7
2:0
13%1:1
11%2:1
9%3:0
8%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Athletico PR
Botafogo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
24%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Strong Home Record: Athletico PR scores an average of 1.5 goals at home and concedes only 0.75 goals
- Weak Away Defense: Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Mathematical Prediction: The analysis indicates a home win for Athletico PR with a 63% probability
Risk Factors
- For Botafogo, Danilo is missing, only 69% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
- Botafogo averages only 2.8 shots on target per game
- Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Overview
Athletico PR (6th place, 13 points) host Botafogo (18th place, 6 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on March 29, 2026, 12:30 AM. Athletico PR are fighting for the top spots, while Botafogo are trying to move away from the relegation zone.
Form
Athletico PR's form across all competitions is LDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games
Athletico PR won their last two matches consecutively
Botafogo's form across all competitions is LLLLW
They achieved 1 win and 4 losses in their last five fixtures
Botafogo recently secured a win
Statistics
Athletico PR scored an average of 1.43 goals per game and conceded 1 goal per game this season
At home, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 0.75 goals per home game
Athletico PR kept 2 clean sheets
Botafogo scored an average of 1.67 goals per game and conceded 2 goals per game this season
Away, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 2.25 goals per away game
Botafogo kept 1 clean sheet
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches across all competitions, Athletico PR has not registered a win
Botafogo won 1 match and 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Botafogo
The last encounter was won by Botafogo 0:1 on October 05, 2024
Botafogo has been the dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.91), Stiven Mendoza (3 goals, 0 assists, rating 6.90) and Julimar (2 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.73) are important attacking players
For Botafogo, Alexander Barboza (1 goal, 2 assists, rating 6.37), Arthur Cabral (1 goal, 1 assist, rating 7.04) and Alex Telles (1 goal, 0 assists, rating 6.52) stand out
Goalkeepers
Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos has 7 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.94
Athletico PR managed to keep 2 clean sheets
Botafogo's goalkeeper Raul has 3 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.96
Botafogo managed to keep 1 clean sheet
Influences
Athletico PR appears stronger at home, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game
Botafogo concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
No data on stadium or weather-related influences is available