Serie A
Botafogo - Mirassol
04/01/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Botafogo
Mirassol
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Critical squad gap for Botafogo: Only 33% of the usual starting XI goal threat available due to missing Danilo (5G/1A), Alexander Barboza (1G/2A), and Ălvaro Montoro (0G/2A)
- Tactical disparity: Mirassol dominates possession (59% avg) and generates more shots on target (6.2 avg) compared to Botafogo (47% possession, 2.6 avg shots on target)
- Even prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a 34% win probability for both teams, indicating a very tight outcome
Risk Factors
- Botafogo had only 3 days of rest since the last match
- Mirassol concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Botafogo averaged 2.6 shots on target in recent matches
Overview
Botafogo (19th place, 6 points) hosts Mirassol (17th place, 6 points) in a Serie A match on April 1, 2026, 12:30 AM. Both teams are in the lower regions of the table and are fighting for crucial points to escape the relegation zone. The mathematical analysis predicts a very close game, as the expected goals for both teams are almost identical, with 1.15 for Botafogo and 1.16 for Mirassol.
Form
Botafogo's form in the last five games across all competitions is LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). Their last game ended in a loss. Mirassol shows a form of DDLLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) in their last five games and also lost their last match. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Botafogo scores an average of 1.57 goals per game and concedes 2.29 goals per game. In 4 out of 7 games, both teams scored, and 6 games ended with over 2.5 goals. At home, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. Mirassol scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per game. In 4 out of 7 games, both teams scored, and 4 games ended with over 2.5 goals. Away from home, Mirassol averages 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded.
Head-to-Head
In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, there were no wins for Botafogo or Mirassol, both games ended in a draw. The goal difference is even at 3:3. The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended scoreless at 0:0.
Key Players
For Botafogo, Arthur Cabral (Attacker, 1 goal, 1 assist), Edenilson (Midfielder, 1 goal), and Alex Telles (Defender, 1 goal) could be crucial. Arthur Cabral shows a declining form, while Edenilson and Alex Telles maintain stable form. For Mirassol, Negueba (Attacker, 2 goals, rising form), Igor Formiga (Defender, 2 goals), and Alesson (Attacker, 2 assists) stand out. JoĂŁo Victor (Defender, 1 assist) and Shaylon (Midfielder, 1 assist) are other important players.
Goalkeepers
In goal for Botafogo is Raul, who has recorded 1 clean sheet this season and has an average rating of 6.78. For Mirassol, Walter is in goal, with 0 clean sheets so far and an average rating of 6.83.
Influences
Botafogo demonstrates home strength with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per home game. Mirassol, in turn, concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game. There is no data available on stadium history, surface records, or weather that could influence the match.