Serie A
Bahia - Athletico PR
04/01/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.0
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Bahia
Athletico PR
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
29%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Bahia with a probability of 48%
- Athletico PR is in strong form, with 3 consecutive wins in their recent matches
- The home team Bahia scores an average of 1.33 goals per game at home and concedes only 0.67 goals
Risk Factors
- Athletico PR had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could indicate fatigue
- Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.0 away goals per game, representing a defensive weakness on the road
- The absence of Lucas Esquivel (1 goal, 3 assists) for Athletico PR and Willian José (2 goals, 1 assist) for Bahia impacts the offensive strength of both teams
Overview
Bahia (6th place, 14 points) host Athletico PR (2nd place, 16 points) in a Serie A match. The game will be played on April 2, 2026, 12:00 AM. Both teams are in the upper half of the table. Athletico PR aims to maintain their lead over the chasing pack, while Bahia seeks to close the gap to the top
Form
Bahia's form (WDWWL) shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. They recently suffered a loss
Athletico PR's form (DLWWW) includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Athletico PR has achieved 3 consecutive wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Bahia shows a stable recent form, while Athletico PR's recent form is positive
Statistics
Bahia scores an average of 1.29 goals per game and concedes an average of 1 goal per game
At home, they score 1.33 goals and concede 0.67 goals per home game
Bahia kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches
Both teams scored in 4 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 matches
Athletico PR scores an average of 1.75 goals per game and concedes an average of 1 goal per game
Away from home, they score 2 goals and concede 2 goals per away game
Athletico PR kept 2 clean sheets in 8 matches
Both teams scored in 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, Bahia recorded 1 win and 1 draw. Athletico PR has not won any of these encounters
The goal difference is 4:2 in favor of Bahia
The last match on November 24, 2024, ended in a 1:1 draw
Bahia has been dominant in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Bahia, key players include Luciano Juba (2 goals, 0 assists in 5 games, Avg. Rating 7.19), Jean Lucas (1 goal, 1 assist in 5 games, Avg. Rating 6.95), and Cristian Olivera (0 goals, 1 assist in 5 games, Avg. Rating 6.97)
For Athletico PR, important players are Kevin Viveros (3 goals, 0 assists in 5 games, Avg. Rating 7.01), Stiven Mendoza (2 goals, 0 assists in 5 games, Avg. Rating 6.71), and GastĂłn AmĂ©rico BenavĂdez (0 goals, 2 assists in 5 games, Avg. Rating 6.90)
Goalkeepers
Bahia's goalkeeper is LĂ©o Vieira
Bahia has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Athletico PR's goalkeeper is Santos
Athletico PR has achieved 2 clean sheets this season
Influences
Bahia shows defensive stability at home, with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game
Athletico PR, however, concedes an average of 2 goals per away game, while also scoring 2 goals