Serie A
Coritiba - Vasco da Gama
04/01/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.5
1.4
1:1
14%0:0
10%0:1
10%1:2
9%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
Coritiba
Vasco da Gama
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
30%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Vasco da Gama has a higher win probability of 40% according to the mathematical analysis
- Vasco da Gama is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.2 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.6 goals), while Coritiba's goal production has slowed (Avg. 0.8 goals in the last 5 games)
- Vasco da Gama is offensively strong with an average of 5.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Coritiba's counter-attacking style and average of 2.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Vasco da Gama's starting lineup strength is critical, with only 56% of the usual goal threat and 45% of the assist threat available, without Cuiabano (2G/3A) and Andrés Gómez (0G/2A)
- Coritiba averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview
Coritiba (7th place, 13 points) hosts Vasco da Gama (9th place, 11 points) in a Serie A match. The game takes place on April 1, 2026, at 11:30 PM, representing a mid-table clash where both teams aim to climb higher in the standings
Form
Coritiba's form in the last five games is LWWWL
This translates to 3 wins and 2 losses
Their last match resulted in a loss
Vasco da Gama's form is LWDWW
This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
The team has won its last two consecutive matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Coritiba scored an average of 1.13 goals and conceded 1 goal per game this season
The team kept 3 clean sheets and both teams scored in 2 matches
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 games
In one home game, Coritiba scored 1 goal and conceded 2 goals
Vasco da Gama scored an average of 1.63 goals and conceded 1.63 goals per game this season
The team has 0 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 6 games
In 3 away games, Vasco da Gama scored 5 goals and conceded 7 goals
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any head-to-head matches between Coritiba and Vasco da Gama
Key Players
For Coritiba, attacker Lucas Ronier is important with 1 goal and 2 assists in 8 appearances and an average rating of 7.09
JoaquĂn Lavega, also an attacker, contributed 2 goals in 8 appearances with an average rating of 6.76
Midfielder Josué provided 2 assists in 7 appearances with an average rating of 6.68 and shows a rising form trend
For Vasco da Gama, midfielder Thiago Mendes stands out with 2 goals in 7 appearances and an average rating of 7.19, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 games
Attacker David recorded 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 appearances with an average rating of 6.93
Nuno Moreira, an attacker, scored 1 goal in 8 appearances with an average rating of 6.88
Goalkeepers
In goal for Coritiba, Pedro Rangel is expected to start, having made 5 appearances this season
The Coritiba team has kept 3 clean sheets this season
LĂ©o Jardim will be in goal for Vasco da Gama, having made 8 appearances this season
The Vasco da Gama team has kept 0 clean sheets this season
Influences
Coritiba scored 1 goal and conceded 2 goals in its only home game
Vasco da Gama scored 5 goals and conceded 7 goals in 3 away games
No specific data on venue history, weather, or pitch surface is available