Serie A
Cruzeiro - Vitória
04/01/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
13%0:1
10%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Cruzeiro
Vitória
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
33%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40% for Cruzeiro
- Vitória shows significant away weakness, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game
- Historically, Cruzeiro dominates head-to-head matches with 2 wins and 0 losses in 4 games
Risk Factors
- Cruzeiro will have a reduced starting eleven strength, with only 74% of usual goal threat available, as Kaiki and Néiser Villarreal are missing
- Vitória averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Cruzeiro has not won any of their last 5 games, showing a form of DLDLD
Overview
Cruzeiro (20th place, 4 points) hosts Vitória (11th place, 10 points) in Serie A on April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM. Cruzeiro is at the bottom of the table fighting for crucial points, while Vitória aims for a top-half finish
Form
Cruzeiro's form across all competitions is DLDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a draw. Vitória shows a form of LDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match was a win
Statistics
Cruzeiro averages 1.0 goal scored per game and concedes 2.0 goals. At home, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 of 8 matches. Vitória averages 1.14 goals scored per game and concedes 1.43 goals. Away, they average 1.0 goal scored and 4.0 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of 7 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 7 matches
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro and Vitória, Cruzeiro secured 2 wins and there were 2 draws. Vitória has not yet recorded a win. The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro won the last encounter 3:1 on November 1, 2025. Recent head-to-head encounters show dominance from Cruzeiro
Key Players
For Cruzeiro, Matheus Pereira (Midfielder) stands out with a season average rating of 7.37 and 2 goals. Kaio Jorge (Attacker) shows a rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 games. Christian (Midfielder) scored 1 goal and has stable form. For Vitória, Baralhas (Midfielder) is a key player with 2 goals and 2 assists this season and 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games. Erick (Attacker) contributed with 1 goal and 2 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 games. Matheuzinho (Midfielder) scored 1 goal this season and 1 goal in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Cruzeiro's goalkeeper, Matheus Cunha, had an average rating of 6.4 in 4 appearances. He achieved 1 clean sheet. For Vitória, Lucas Arcanjo was in goal for 4 games and achieved an average rating of 7.06. He kept 3 clean sheets
Influences
Cruzeiro averages 1.0 goal scored per home game and concedes 1.2 goals. Vitória shows a significant away weakness, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game