Serie A
Chapecoense - Atlético Mineiro
04/02/2026, 10:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Chapecoense
Atlético Mineiro
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
31%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Chapecoense's reduced attacking power, with only 67% of usual starting XI strength available
- Atlético Mineiro showed significant defensive weaknesses in their only away game, conceding 6 goals
- Both teams show a negative trend in their recent goal production according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
- Limited data availability for head-to-head matches, as no previous encounters were found
- Chapecoense has only 67% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Both teams recorded low average shots on target in their last 5 games (Chapecoense Avg. 2.8, Atlético Mineiro Avg. 3.4)
Overview
Chapecoense (16th place, 7 points) hosts Atlético Mineiro (14th place, 8 points) in a Serie A match on April 2, 2026, 7:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower third of the table and are fighting for crucial points to move away from the relegation zone. A close encounter is expected.
Form
Chapecoense's form across all competitions is DLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The last result was a 0-2 loss against Internacional
Atlético Mineiro's form across all competitions is LWLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
The last result was a 0-1 loss against Fluminense
Statistics
Chapecoense has scored an average of 1.29 goals per game and conceded 1.57 goals per game this season
At home, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded
The team has kept 1 clean sheet this season
Both teams scored in 4 matches, and 2 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals per game
Away from home, the team has scored 1.0 goal per game and conceded an average of 6.0 goals per game (based on one away match)
The team has kept 2 clean sheets this season
Both teams scored in 3 matches, and 3 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
According to Advanced Stats, Chapecoense's goal production is currently stagnant (averaging 1.0 goals) compared to their season average (1.5 goals)
Atlético Mineiro's goal production is also stagnant (averaging 0.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.0 goals)
Both teams show a negative form trend in terms of goals scored
Key Players
For Chapecoense, Walter Clar (3 goals, 1 assist), Doma (1 goal), and Carvalheira (1 goal) are key players
Walter Clar showed stable form in the last 5 games with 2 goals and 1 assist and an average rating of 7.09
Doma scored 1 goal in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.62
For Atlético Mineiro, Victor Hugo (2 goals, 1 assist), Hulk (1 goal, 2 assists), and Tomás Cuello (1 goal) are crucial
Victor Hugo scored 1 goal in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.90
Hulk provided 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.92
Tomás Cuello scored 1 goal in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.79
Goalkeepers
Chapecoense is expected to start with Rafael Santos, who has not made any appearances this season
Chapecoense's team has recorded 1 clean sheet this season
Atlético Mineiro is expected to start with Everson, who has made 8 appearances this season, provided 1 assist, and has an average rating of 7.11
Everson showed stable form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.23
Atlético Mineiro's team has recorded 2 clean sheets this season