Serie A
Fluminense - Corinthians
04/02/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.1
0.8
1:0
15%1:1
14%0:0
13%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Fluminense
Corinthians
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
31%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Fluminense with a 50% probability
- Fluminense shows a strong home offense with an average of 1.75 goals and has recently scored more frequently (Avg. 1.8 goals)
- Corinthians struggles in offense, with Avg. 0.8 goals recently and an average of only 2.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Corinthians recorded an average of only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Historical head-to-head encounters show Corinthians' dominance
Overview
Fluminense (4th place, 16 points) hosts Corinthians (10th place, 10 points) in Serie A. Kick-off is on April 2, 2026, 2:30 AM. Fluminense competes for top spots, while Corinthians aims to climb into the upper half of the table
Form
Fluminense's form in the last five games (all competitions): LWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses. Corinthians shows the following form in the last five matches: DLDDD (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss). Fluminense is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 1.8 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.6 goals). Corinthians' goal production has recently stalled (Avg. 0.8 goals), while their season average is Avg. 1.0 goal
Statistics
Fluminense averages 1.63 goals per game and concedes 1.13 goals. At home, they score Avg. 1.75 goals and concede Avg. 0.75 goals. Corinthians has a season average of 0.88 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded. Away, Corinthians scores Avg. 1.0 goal and concedes Avg. 0.67 goals. Fluminense kept 3 clean sheets, as did Corinthians. In 5 Fluminense games and 4 Corinthians games, both teams scored. 4 of Fluminense's games and only 1 of Corinthians' games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1, Corinthians won 2, and there was 1 draw. The goal difference is 2:4 in favor of Corinthians. The last encounter on September 14, 2025, saw Corinthians win away 1-0. Corinthians has been the more dominant team in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Fluminense, Luciano Acosta (3 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 7.56 rating) and HĂ©rcules (2 goals, Avg. 7.04 rating) are key attacking players. Jefferson Savarino contributed 2 assists (Avg. 7.25 rating). Not nominated is AgustĂn Canobbio (3 goals, 1 assist). For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 3 assists, Avg. 7.26 rating) and Matheus Bidu (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg. 7.13 rating) are notable. Gabriel Paulista scored 1 goal (Avg. 7.04 rating)
Goalkeepers
Fluminense's goalkeeper FĂĄbio played in 8 matches and kept 3 clean sheets. Corinthians' goalkeeper KauĂȘ has not played any matches this season. Corinthians as a team recorded 3 clean sheets
Influences
Fluminense showed strong offense at home with Avg. 1.75 goals per game and a solid defense conceding Avg. 0.75 goals. Corinthians scored Avg. 1.0 goal per away game and conceded Avg. 0.67 goals, indicating a stable away defense