Serie A
Bragantino - Flamengo
04/03/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
13%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
7%What influences the xG?
Bragantino
Flamengo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Form difference: Flamengo is unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw), while Bragantino recorded 3 losses and 2 draws
- Offensive strength: Flamengo scores an average of 1.86 goals per game, compared to Bragantino's 0.75 goals
- Historical record: Flamengo dominated head-to-head matches with 3 wins and no wins for Bragantino
Risk Factors
- Mathematical analysis predicts extremely tight probabilities (home win 33%, draw 33%, away win 34%), indicating an unpredictable match
- Bragantino conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Flamengo is missing key players such as Giorgian de Arrascaeta (1 goal, 1 assist), L. Pereira (1 goal), and G. Varela Olivera (2 assists) due to injuries or suspensions
Overview
Bragantino (15th place, 8 points) host Flamengo (6th place, 14 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 3, 2026, 2:30 AM. Bragantino is stuck in the lower half of the table, while Flamengo is having a strong season and is fighting for the top spots.
Form
Bragantino's current form (DDLLL) shows a tendency towards losses in the last five games. They recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. The last result was a loss.
Flamengo, on the other hand, is in excellent shape (WWWWD) with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses in their last five matches. The last game ended in a draw.
Bragantino: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Flamengo: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Bragantino has scored an average of 0.75 goals per game and conceded 1.25 goals in 8 matches. At home, the average is 0.8 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game. Bragantino scored in 4 games, kept 2 clean sheets, and failed to score in 2 games. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 games.
Flamengo shows a significantly stronger offense with an average of 1.86 goals per game and a solid defense with only 0.71 goals conceded. Away from home, Flamengo scores an average of 1.75 goals and concedes 1 goal per game. Flamengo scored in 4 games, kept 3 clean sheets, and failed to score in 0 games. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 games.
Head-to-Head
In the 4 recent head-to-head matches, Bragantino has not secured a single win. Flamengo won 3 games, and one match ended in a draw. The goal difference is 3:8 in favor of Flamengo. The last encounter on November 23, 2025, ended with a 3:0 victory for Flamengo. Flamengo is the recently dominant winner in these direct confrontations.
Key Players
For Bragantino, the following players are crucial: Juninho Capixaba (2 goals, 1 assist), Lucas Barbosa (1 goal), and José Herrera (1 goal). Juninho Capixaba showed stable form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist.
For Flamengo, Pedro (2 goals, 2 assists), Samuel Lino (2 goals, 1 assist), and LĂ©o Ortiz (1 goal, 1 assist) stand out. LĂ©o Ortiz is in rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
For Bragantino, Tiago Volpi is in goal, who was involved in one home clean sheet this season. For Flamengo, AgustĂn Rossi will guard the goal and managed one away clean sheet.
Influences
Bragantino scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded 1 goal per home game, indicating a slight defensive home advantage.