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Serie A

Internacional - São Paulo

04/01/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.4
Total xG
2.4
São Paulo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
INTSP

Internacional

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.45
Attack strength (1.37x league average)
-0.28
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
Johan Carbonero on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Vitinho not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 50% available)
Strong home record (2.2 vs 0.9 goals/match)

São Paulo

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.44
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap)
+0.04
Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Internacional's squad is critically weakened, with only 50% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available, without Johan Carbonero (1G/1A) and Vitinho (0G/2A)
  • São Paulo boasts a solid defense with an average of 0.63 goals conceded per game, but faces an Internacional that has improved offensively in recent matches (currently 1.0 goals per game)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 42% probability and 1.36 expected goals for Internacional
Risk Factors
  • The historical record favors São Paulo, who won the last direct encounter 3-0 and are considered the recently dominant team
  • São Paulo's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals on average in recent games compared to 1.3 season average) and they register only 3.6 shots on target on average
  • Internacional shows a low seasonal goal output, with an average of 0.88 goals per game
Overview

Internacional (12th place, 8 points) host São Paulo (3rd place, 16 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 1, 2026, 7:30 PM

São Paulo aims to maintain its position in the upper league table, while Internacional urgently needs points in midfield

Form

Internacional's form in their last 5 matches is DLLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Internacional's current form trend is positive with two consecutive wins

São Paulo's form in their last 5 matches is WWWLL

This corresponds to 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses

The away team's form is negative with two consecutive losses

According to advanced statistics, Internacional is currently scoring more frequently (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals)

São Paulo's goal production is stagnant (1.0 goals), while their season average is 1.3 goals

Statistics

Internacional has scored an average of 0.88 goals per game and conceded 1.13 goals per game this season

At home, they scored an average of 1 goal and conceded 1.67 goals

They kept 1 clean sheet in home games

São Paulo is stronger offensively with an average of 1.25 goals per game and a very stable defense of 0.63 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 1 goal per game

They kept 1 clean sheet in away games

This season, Internacional had 4 games where both teams scored and 2 games with over 2.5 goals

For São Paulo, both teams scored in 3 games, and 2 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches between Internacional and São Paulo, there has been 1 home win, 2 away wins, and 1 draw

Internacional scored 4 goals and São Paulo scored 6 goals

The last encounter on December 3, 2025, ended with a 3-0 victory for São Paulo

São Paulo has dominated recent meetings

Key Players

Key players for Internacional include: Alan Patrick, midfielder, with 2 goals in 7 season appearances and an average rating of 7.5

Gabriel Mercado, defender, scored 1 goal in 5 season appearances and shows a rising form trend

Alexandro Bernabei, defender, with a rising form trend and a season rating of 7.1 in 7 appearances

Key players for São Paulo include: Jonathan Calleri, attacker, with 4 goals in 8 season appearances

Luciano, attacker, with 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 season appearances

Sabino, defender, scored 1 goal in 7 season appearances and has a season rating of 7.15

Goalkeepers

Internacional is expected to start with Anthoni in goal

The Internacional team recorded 1 clean sheet this season

For São Paulo, Rafael is expected to be in goal

São Paulo kept 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Internacional scored an average of 1 goal at home and conceded an average of 1.67 goals per home game

São Paulo scored an average of 1.33 goals away and conceded an average of 1 goal per away game

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