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Serie A

Grêmio - Remo

04/05/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Grêmio
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Remo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
GRÊREM

Grêmio

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 20, 9 places gap)
+0.07
Erick Noriega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 97% available)

Remo

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 11, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Vitor Bueno not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 53% probability
  • Grêmio scores an average of 1.67 goals at home this season, while Remo concedes an average of 3.67 goals away
  • Grêmio's goal production has recently stalled with an average of 1.2 goals, compared to their season average of 1.6 goals
  • Remo's goal production has also recently stalled with an average of 0.8 goals, compared to their season average of 1.1 goals
Risk Factors
  • Grêmio had only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Remo had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Remo concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
Overview

Grêmio (11th place, 11 points) hosts Remo (20th place, 6 points) in a Serie A match

The game takes place on April 5, 2026, 8:30 PM

Grêmio aims to improve its league position, while Remo is at the bottom of the table fighting to catch up

Form

Grêmio's form across all competitions is "DDWLL"

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

In their last five games, Grêmio recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last two results were losses

Remo's form across all competitions is "LLLWL"

In their last five games, Remo achieved 1 win and 4 losses

Their last result was a loss

Statistics

Grêmio scores an average of 1.56 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per game this season

In home games, Grêmio is offensive with an average of 1.67 goals and defensively solid with 0.83 goals conceded per home game

Remo scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 1.89 goals per game this season

In away games, Remo is weaker with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 3.67 goals conceded per away game

Grêmio had 7 matches where both teams scored and 5 matches with over 2.5 goals

Remo had 4 matches where both teams scored and 4 matches with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Grêmio and Remo

Key Players

For Grêmio, Carlos Vinícius is an important offensive player with 6 season goals and 0 assists (average rating 7.07) and stable form

Francis Amuzu contributed 1 goal and 2 assists (average rating 6.97) and shows stable form

Juan Nardoni scored 1 goal and 1 assist (average rating 6.67) and also has stable form

For Remo, Alef Manga is a key player with 2 season goals and 3 assists (average rating 7.16), although his form is declining

Gabriel Taliari has scored 2 goals in 2 season appearances (average rating 7.02) and has stable form

Yago Pikachu contributed 1 season goal (average rating 6.63) and his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Grêmio's goalkeeper, Weverton, recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Marcelo Rangel, Remo's goalkeeper, has not kept a clean sheet this season

Influences

Grêmio has a home advantage with an average of 1.67 home goals scored and only 0.83 goals conceded per home game

Remo concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away game and scores only 1.0 away goals

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