Serie A
Corinthians - Internacional
04/05/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Corinthians
Internacional
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
31%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Critical absence: Corinthians has only 37% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available due to missing key players like Rodrigo Garro (1G/3A) and Matheus Bidu (1G/1A)
- Form trend: Internacional shows a positive form trend and recently averaged 5.2 shots on target, while Corinthians only managed 3.0 shots on target
- Model prognosis: The mathematical analysis suggests a close match with a home win probability of 38% and an away win probability of 32%
Risk Factors
- Corinthians had only 3 days since their last match
- Corinthians averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Corinthians (14th place, 10 points) host Internacional (16th place, 9 points) in a Serie A match on April 5, 2026, 7:30 PM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, battling for crucial points to move away from the relegation zone. The mathematical analysis indicates a slight favoritism for the home team with a home win probability of 38%
Form
Corinthians' form (LDDDL) over the last five matches across all competitions shows no wins, three draws, and two losses. Their last match was a 1-3 away loss against Fluminense. Before that, they had a 1-1 home draw against Flamengo. Internacional (LLWWD) has two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Internacional recently played a 1-1 home draw against São Paulo, following a 2-0 home win against Chapecoense. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Corinthians averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded. Internacional also averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded overall. Away from home, Internacional conceded an average of 0.8 goals while scoring 0.8 goals. Corinthians' goal production is faltering with an average of 0.8 goals recently, while the season average is 1.0. Internacional is currently scoring more frequently (1.0 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals). The model predicts 1.26 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.14 expected goals for Internacional
Head-to-Head
In four head-to-head matches between Corinthians and Internacional, both teams secured one win each, with two draws. Corinthians scored seven goals, while Internacional scored six. The last encounter, on October 1, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw.
Key Players
Yuri Alberto, Corinthians attacker, recorded one goal and zero assists in five season appearances with an average rating of 6.81. André Luiz Santos Dias, Corinthians midfielder, scored one goal and zero assists in eight season appearances with an average rating of 6.62. Breno Bidon, Corinthians midfielder, registered one goal and zero assists in seven season appearances with an average rating of 6.79. Johan Carbonero, Internacional attacker, scored one goal and one assist in nine season appearances with an average rating of 6.9. Vitinho, Internacional attacker, provided zero goals and two assists in eight season appearances with an average rating of 6.93. Gabriel Mercado, Internacional defender, scored one goal and zero assists in six season appearances with an average rating of 6.68
Goalkeepers
Corinthians' goalkeeper, Hugo Souza, achieved three clean sheets in eight season appearances. Sergio Rochet, Internacional's goalkeeper, recorded one clean sheet in eight season appearances
Influences
Corinthians scored four goals and conceded five goals in four home games. Internacional scored four goals and conceded four goals in five away games