Serie A
Coritiba - Fluminense
04/04/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Coritiba
Fluminense
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
30%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Critical absences: Fluminense plays with only 40% of their usual starting XI's goal threat, with five key players not selected
- Offensive strength: Fluminense averaged 7.2 shots on target in their last 5 games and appears offensively strong
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis slightly favors Fluminense with a win probability of 38%
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Coritiba had only 3 days rest since their last match
- Short recovery time: Fluminense had only 2 days rest since their last match
- Low shot efficiency: Coritiba averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Coritiba (7th place, 14 points) host Fluminense (2nd place, 19 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 12:30 AM. Fluminense aims to close the gap to the top of the table, while Coritiba seeks to consolidate its position in the upper half of the standings
Form
Coritiba's form in the last 5 games is WWWLD, which corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The last match ended in a draw against Vasco da Gama. The form trend is stable according to analysis. Fluminense is in good shape with WWLWW in their last 5 matches, securing 4 wins and 1 loss. Fluminense recently defeated Corinthians 3-1. Their current form is rated as positive. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Coritiba scores an average of 1.11 goals per game this season and concedes an average of 1.0 goals. At home, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. They kept 3 clean sheets overall. Fluminense is stronger offensively with an average of 1.78 goals per game and concedes 1.11 goals. Away from home, Fluminense averages 2.0 goals scored and also concedes 2.0 goals. Fluminense scored in 6 matches, Coritiba in 3 matches. The pipeline calculation suggests both teams to score with a probability of 53%
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head data is available for this fixture
Key Players
For Coritiba, key players include Lucas Ronier (1 goal, 2 assists, 7.19 average rating), Jacy (1 goal, 0 assists, 6.86 average rating), and Josué (0 goals, 2 assists, 6.78 average rating). For Fluminense, Hércules (3 goals, 0 assists, 7.11 average rating), Martinelli (0 goals, 1 assist, 7.07 average rating), and Rodrigo Castillo (2 goals, 0 assists, 6.94 average rating) are notable
Goalkeepers
Coritiba's goalkeeper Pedro Rangel has an average rating of 6.91 in 6 season appearances and kept one clean sheet at home. Fluminense's goalkeeper FĂĄbio played in all 9 season appearances, with an average rating of 6.89, and recorded one away clean sheet
Influences
Coritiba scored an average of 1.0 goals at home and conceded 1.5 goals. Fluminense scored an average of 2.0 goals away and also conceded 2.0 goals