Serie A
Flamengo - Santos
04/05/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
11%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Flamengo
Santos
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
30%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Santos' offense is severely weakened by the absence of Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa, with only 30% of their usual goal production available
- Santos averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 50% probability and expects 1.47 goals for Flamengo compared to 0.86 goals for Santos
Risk Factors
- Flamengo has a short recovery period with only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Santos concedes an average of 2 goals per away game
Overview
Flamengo (7th place, 14 points) host Santos (13th place, 10 points) in Serie A. The match is scheduled for April 5, 2026, 9:30 PM. Flamengo aims to advance into the upper echelons of the table, while Santos seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Flamengo shows a form of WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from all competitions, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Their most recent streak ended with a loss. Santos has a form of DDLDW with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Their most recent streak ended with a win
Statistics
Flamengo averages 1.63 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game. They recorded 3 clean sheets in 8 games. At home, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded, with 2 clean sheets in 4 home games. Both teams scored in 4 out of 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches. Santos averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game. They recorded 2 clean sheets in 9 games. Away, the average is 1.25 goals scored and 2 goals conceded, with 1 clean sheet in 4 away games. Both teams scored in 7 out of 9 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, the record between Flamengo and Santos is even. Both teams have recorded 1 win each. The goal difference stands at 3:3. Flamengo won the last encounter 3:2 on November 9, 2025
Key Players
For Flamengo, Pedro is a key attacker with 2 goals and 2 assists and a season average rating of 7.01. Samuel Lino contributes with 2 goals and 1 assist and an average rating of 6.88. LĂ©o Ortiz, as a defender, shows a season average rating of 7.18 with 1 goal and 1 assist. For Santos, Thaciano is significant with 1 goal and an average rating of 6.85. Ălvaro Barreal has 1 goal and a season average rating of 6.86. Gonzalo Escobar as a defender provided 1 assist with a season average rating of 6.73, showing a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
Flamengo's goalkeeper AgustĂn Rossi has recorded 3 clean sheets in 8 games and shows stable form. Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel BrazĂŁo has recorded 2 clean sheets in 9 games and shows a rising form trend
Influences
Flamengo shows a strong defensive performance at home, conceding only 0.25 goals per game on average. Offensively, they score an average of 1.5 goals in their home stadium. Santos, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2 goals per away game