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Serie A

São Paulo - Cruzeiro

04/04/2026, 09:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
São Paulo
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Cruzeiro
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

13%

2:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SPCRU

São Paulo

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.96
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Danielzinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Cruzeiro

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap)
-0.13
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Néiser Villarreal on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

29%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 53% probability
  • São Paulo's strong home defense (averaging 0.4 goals conceded) sharply contrasts with Cruzeiro's extremely vulnerable away defense (averaging 5.0 goals conceded)
  • São Paulo is placed 3rd in the league with 17 points, while Cruzeiro is struggling at 17th place with 7 points
Risk Factors
  • Both teams have had only 3 days since their last match, indicating potential fatigue
  • São Paulo's average shots on target in the last 5 games is 3.2, which is relatively low despite high possession
  • São Paulo's recent goal production has slowed (averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to 1.2 season average)
Overview

São Paulo (3rd place, 17 points) host Cruzeiro (17th place, 7 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 4, 2026, 6:30 PM

São Paulo aims to solidify its position in the top half of the table, while Cruzeiro needs crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

São Paulo's form across all competitions is WWLLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), with their last game ending in a draw

Cruzeiro's form is LDLDW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), with a win in their last game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

São Paulo's goal production has recently stalled (averaging 1.0 goals), while Cruzeiro is currently scoring more frequently (averaging 1.8 goals)

Statistics

São Paulo has scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded 0.67 goals this season

At home, they average 1.2 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded

Cruzeiro has scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded 1.78 goals

Away from home, their defense is very vulnerable, conceding an average of 5.0 goals while scoring 1.5

São Paulo kept 3 clean sheets, Cruzeiro 2

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, São Paulo recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and Cruzeiro achieved 1 win

São Paulo scored 4 goals and conceded 2

The last match was won by Cruzeiro away on August 31, 2025, with a score of 1:0

Key Players

For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri  (5 season goals, 3 goals in last 5 games), Luciano (2 season goals, 1 assist, 1 goal in last 5 games), and Sabino (1 season goal, 1 goal in last 5 games) are key players

For Cruzeiro, Kaio Jorge  (2 season goals, 3 goals in last 5 games), Matheus Pereira (2 season goals, 1 assist, 1 goal and 1 assist in last 5 games), and Christian (2 season goals, 1 assist, 2 goals and 1 assist in last 5 games) are important figures

Goalkeepers

São Paulo's goalkeeper Rafael played 9 season games

The São Paulo team kept 3 clean sheets

For Cruzeiro, Matheus Cunha played in 5 season games

Cruzeiro managed to keep a clean sheet in 2 games

Influences

São Paulo shows a solid home performance with 6 goals scored and only 2 goals conceded in 5 home games

Cruzeiro, on the other hand, conceded 10 goals and scored 3 in 2 away games

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