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Serie A

Chapecoense - Vitória

04/05/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Vitória
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CHAVIT

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.50
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.33
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.31
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.11
Walter Clar on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 75% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Vitória

Attack weakness (0.44x league average)
-0.48
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Baralhas  not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 63% available)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

28%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Chapecoense with a 53% probability
  • Away defense: Vitória concedes an extremely high average of 5.5 goals per away game
  • Team form: Both teams show a negative form trend and stagnant goal production according to advanced stats
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability: No data is available for head-to-head matches or venue history
  • Home team fatigue: Chapecoense had a short rest with only 3 days since their last match
  • Key player absence: Vitória is without Baralhas , leaving only 64% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available
Overview

Chapecoense (17th place, 7 points) host Vitória (15th place, 10 points) in Serie A on April 5, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are in the lower third of the table, with Chapecoense on the verge of the relegation zone. A win is crucial for both to avoid losing ground to the mid-table teams.

Form

Chapecoense's form across all competitions is LDDLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). They have suffered two consecutive losses recently. Vitória's form is DWLWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their last match resulted in a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Chapecoense averages 1.13 goals scored per game and concedes 1.88 goals. At home, they score 1.14 goals and concede 1.43 goals per game. The team recorded 1 clean sheet. Vitória averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 1.0 goal and concede a very high 5.5 goals per game. Vitória has kept 3 clean sheets.

Head-to-Head

No data is available for head-to-head matches between Chapecoense and Vitória.

Key Players

For Chapecoense, Jean Carlos shows an average rating of 7.13 with 2 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances. Doma scored 1 goal in 7 games. Everton contributed 1 assist. For Vitória, Erick (1 goal, 2 assists in 8 games, rating 6.86), Renato Kayzer (2 goals in 6 games), and Ramon (1 goal in 8 games) are the standout performers.

Goalkeepers

Chapecoense's goalkeeper is Rafael Santos. For Vitória, Lucas Arcanjo is in goal, having played 5 matches and kept 3 clean sheets this season. Chapecoense has achieved 1 clean sheet, Vitória 3 clean sheets.

Influences

Chapecoense has scored 8 goals and conceded 10 goals in 7 home games. Vitória has scored 2 goals and conceded 11 goals in 2 away games. Chapecoense's home advantage could be amplified by the opponent's poor away record. No weather data is available for the match.

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