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Serie A

Atlético Mineiro - Athletico PR

04/05/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético Mineiro
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Athletico PR
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

8%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
AMAP

Atlético Mineiro

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.76
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.42
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.42
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Full strength squad available

Athletico PR

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.04
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
Julimar on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a 41% probability for a home win
  • Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game, making their defense vulnerable
  • Atlético Mineiro shows a strong home offense with 1.4 goals per game and positive form in their last five matches
Risk Factors
  • Atlético Mineiro has only 58% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Atlético Mineiro had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Athletico PR is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6)
Overview

Atlético Mineiro (10th place, 11 points) host Athletico PR (5th place, 16 points) in a Serie A match. The game will be played on April 5, 2026, 5:30 PM. Atlético Mineiro aims to close the gap to the top half of the table, while Athletico PR seeks to solidify its position in the top group

Form

Atlético Mineiro's form in their last five matches is WLWLW (3 wins, 2 losses)

Their last game ended in a win

Athletico PR's form over their last five matches is LWWWL (3 wins, 2 losses), with their most recent match being a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético Mineiro scores an average of 1.33 goals per game and concedes 1.22 goals

At home, they score 1.4 goals and concede 1 goal per home game

They kept 3 clean sheets this season

Athletico PR scores an average of 1.56 goals per game and concedes 1.22 goals

Away from home, they score an average of 1.33 goals and concede 2.33 goals per away game

They kept 2 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 3 of Atlético Mineiro's home matches and 5 of Athletico PR's away matches

Head-to-Head

In 2 direct encounters, Atlético Mineiro won 1 match and Athletico PR won 1 match

The goal difference is even with 1:1 goals

The last encounter was a 1-0 home win for Atlético Mineiro on December 8, 2024

The head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Atlético Mineiro: Tomás Cuello (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, form rising), Hulk  (1 goal, 2 assists this season, stable), Victor Hugo (2 goals, 1 assist this season, stable)

For Athletico PR: Kevin Viveros (5 goals, 1 assist this season, stable, 3 goals in last 5 games), Stiven Mendoza (3 goals this season, stable, 2 goals in last 5 games), Lucas Esquivel (1 goal, 3 assists this season, form declining)

Not nominated for Athletico PR: Julimar (2 goals, 1 assist this season)

Goalkeepers

Atlético Mineiro's goalkeeper Everson has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos  has recorded 2 clean sheets

Influences

Atlético Mineiro averages 1.4 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per home game

Athletico PR concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game

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