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Serie A

Mirassol - Bragantino

04/05/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Mirassol
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Bragantino
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MIRBRA

Mirassol

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 12, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.02
Negueba not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Bragantino

Attack strength (1.57x league average)
+1.24
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.77
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 19, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.04
Full strength squad available
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • The pipeline analysis favors Bragantino with a 44% win probability compared to 28% for Mirassol
  • Mirassol's goal production is stagnant with 0.8 goals in recent games, while Bragantino has increased to 1.2 goals per game
  • Bragantino historically dominates direct encounters with 1 win and 1 draw from 2 matches
Risk Factors
  • Bragantino had only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Bragantino's defense conceded an average of 2.5 goals per away game
  • Only 67% of Bragantino's usual goal production is currently available
Overview

Mirassol (19th place, 6 points) hosts Bragantino (12th place, 11 points) in a Serie A match

The game is scheduled for April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM

Mirassol is fighting at the bottom of the table, while Bragantino is positioned in the mid-table of the league

Form

Mirassol is currently in poor form with 4 consecutive losses (DLLLL)

Overall, Mirassol has 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses from their last 5 games

Bragantino recently improved and won their last match (DLLLW)

Bragantino's form in the last 5 games is 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The analysis of current data confirms Mirassol's negative form trend

Bragantino, on the other hand, shows a positive form trend

Statistics

Mirassol scores an average of 1.25 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.63 goals per game this season

Bragantino scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.11 goals per game

Mirassol has not kept any clean sheets this season

Bragantino has kept 3 clean sheets

In home games, Mirassol averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded

Away from home, Bragantino scores 1.0 goals and concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game

Mirassol's matches have seen both teams score in 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 5 games

Bragantino's matches have seen both teams score in 4 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 games

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, Bragantino secured 1 win and there was 1 draw

Mirassol has not yet won any of the direct encounters

The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Bragantino

The last meeting ended in a 1:1 draw on October 1, 2025

Key Players

For Mirassol, Igor Formiga is in good form with 3 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.07

Shaylon contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season, with a rating of 6.91

Alesson has provided 2 assists this season and has a rating of 6.79

Not in the squad for Mirassol: Negueba (2 goals, 0 assists)

For Bragantino, Juninho Capixaba is important with 2 season goals and 1 assist, most recently with 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.30

Henry Mosquera has 1 assist this season and achieves a rating of 7.20

Lucas Barbosa scored 1 goal this season and 1 goal recently, with a rating of 7.05

Goalkeepers

Walter, Mirassol's goalkeeper, has not managed to keep a clean sheet in any game this season

Tiago Volpi, Bragantino's goalkeeper, achieved an average rating of 7.90 in his appearance this season

Bragantino has achieved a total of 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Mirassol averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded in home games

Bragantino scores 1.0 goals and concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game away from home

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