Serie A
Vasco da Gama - Botafogo
04/05/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.5
0.7
1:0
14%2:0
13%1:1
12%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Vasco da Gama
Botafogo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
62%
Draw
25%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
38%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Vasco da Gama with a 62% probability
- Botafogo's away defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.25 goals per away game
- Vasco da Gama currently shows a strong offense, scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.6)
Risk Factors
- The historical record shows Botafogo's dominance in head-to-head matches, with 3 wins and 1 draw against 0 losses
- Botafogo's goal production is currently stagnant (1.4), compared to their season average of 1.8 goals
Overview
Vasco da Gama (8th place, 12 points) host Botafogo (16th place, 9 points) in a Serie A match on April 4, 2026, 9:00 PM. Vasco aims to solidify their position in the upper half of the table, while Botafogo seeks to escape the relegation zone.
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Vasco da Gama is in good form with WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches
Their last outing was a 1-1 away draw against Coritiba
In their last five games, Vasco scored an average of 2.2 goals, exceeding their season average of 1.6 goals
Botafogo's form in their last five matches is LLWLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)
Their most recent result was a 3-2 home win against Mirassol
Botafogo's goal production is currently stagnant, averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.8 goals
Statistics
Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.56 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals
At home, they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded
Both teams scored (BTTS) in 8 out of 9 Vasco matches
Botafogo has a season average of 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded
Away from home, Botafogo conceded an average of 3.25 goals while scoring 1.75 goals
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 7 out of 8 Botafogo matches
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Vasco da Gama has not secured any wins
Botafogo has won 3 matches, with one ending in a draw
The goal difference is a clear 9:1 in favor of Botafogo
The last encounter saw Botafogo win 3-0 on November 5, 2025
Key Players
For Vasco da Gama, Cuiabano (2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 7.74 Rating), Cauan Barros (3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 7.10 Rating) and Thiago Mendes (3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 7.41 Rating) are crucial
For Botafogo, Danilo (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, Avg. 7.08 Rating), Alex Telles (2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 6.58 Rating) and Arthur Cabral (1 goal, 0 assists in last 5 games, Avg. 6.77 Rating) are key players
Goalkeepers
Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper, LĂ©o Jardim, has not kept any clean sheets in 9 season appearances
Botafogo's goalkeeper Raul has recorded one clean sheet in 5 appearances
Influences
Vasco da Gama has shown solid offense at home with an average of 1.6 goals scored and a stable defense with 1.2 goals conceded
Botafogo has scored an average of 1.75 goals away, but demonstrated high vulnerability by conceding 3.25 goals per game