Serie A
Bahia - Palmeiras
04/05/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
11%2:0
10%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Bahia
Palmeiras
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
29%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 50% for Bahia
- Bahia shows consistent goal production (currently 1.6 goals per game), while Palmeiras recently scored fewer goals (1.4 vs. 2.11 season average)
- Bahia was possession-dominant in the last five games (56% possession) and averaged 5.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Palmeiras had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- The pipeline prediction for Over 2.5 goals is only 46%
- Limited data available for duel statistics from the last 5 games
Overview
Bahia (4th place, 17 points) host Palmeiras (1st place, 22 points) in a Serie A top match on April 5, 2026, 11:30 PM
The game promises excitement as Bahia aims to secure their lead over pursuers and close the gap to the top
Form
Bahia shows a stable performance with a DWWLW form in their last five games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Their last home game against Athletico PR resulted in a 3-0 victory
Palmeiras is in good shape with a LWWWW form (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games
The team won their last away game against SĂŁo Paulo with a 1-0 score
Statistics
Bahia scored an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and conceded 0.88 goals
At home, Bahia is defensively strong with an average of 0.4 goals conceded per home game and 1.4 goals scored
Palmeiras is more offensive with an average of 2.11 goals scored per game and conceded 1.0 goals
Away from home, Palmeiras scored an average of 2.33 goals and conceded 1.67 goals
In Bahia's matches, both teams scored in four out of eight games
For Palmeiras, both teams scored in seven out of nine games
Head-to-Head
In four head-to-head matches, the record is balanced with two wins for Bahia and two wins for Palmeiras
The goal difference slightly favors Palmeiras with 4:3
The last encounter was won by Bahia at home on September 28, 2025, with a 1-0 score
Key Players
For Bahia, Everaldo with three goals in four of the last five matches, Luciano Juba (two goals, one assist), and Jean Lucas (one goal, two assists) are in strong form
Everton Ribeiro (one assist) and Cristian Olivera (one assist) are other important attacking players for Bahia
Not nominated for Bahia: Willian José (2G/1A)
For Palmeiras, Marlon Freitas showed rising form in the last five games with two goals and one assist
Jhon Arias contributed three goals in the last five matches
Andreas Pereira collected three assists in the last five games
Gustavo GĂłmez and Murilo are important defenders for Palmeiras
Goalkeepers
Bahia's goalkeeper, LĂ©o Vieira, appeared in one league game and has 4 clean sheets this season
Carlos Miguel of Palmeiras played in eight league games and recorded 2 clean sheets
Influences
Bahia shows a very strong defense at home with only 0.4 goals conceded on average
Palmeiras, on the other hand, is offensively strong away from home with an average of 2.33 goals per game