Serie A
Vitória - São Paulo
04/11/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
11%0:1
10%2:1
7%What influences the xG?
Vitória
São Paulo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
33%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Table Position: São Paulo is significantly ahead of Vitória (2nd vs. 14th place), indicating overall strength
- São Paulo's Defensive Strength: São Paulo has conceded an average of only 0.7 goals per game this season
- Vitória's Home Defense: Vitória shows strong defensive performance at home, conceding only 0.33 goals per home game
Risk Factors
- São Paulo is missing key offensive players, reducing their available goal threat to 63%; Jonathan Calleri (6G/0A) and Luciano (2G/1A) are out
- São Paulo averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Vitória's goal production shows a negative form trend (0.8 goals recently compared to 1.0 season average)
Overview
Vitória (14th place, 11 points) hosts second-placed São Paulo (2nd place, 20 points) in a Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 7:30 PM
São Paulo aims to solidify its position in the top group
The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with a home win probability of 34%, a draw of 33%, and an away win of 34%
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Vitória enters the match with a form of WLWLD
The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
São Paulo shows the form WLLDW
They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Vitória's goal production has recently stalled with an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.0 goals
São Paulo consistently scores and shows a stable form trend with an average of 1.4 goals per game in recent matches
Statistics
Vitória scores an average of 1.0 goals per season and concedes 1.56 goals
São Paulo, on the other hand, is stronger offensively with an average of 1.5 goals and more solid defensively with only 0.7 goals conceded per game
At home, Vitória scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes only 0.33 goals
São Paulo is also offensively oriented away from home, with 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game
Vitória saw both teams score in 4 of 9 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 games
São Paulo had both teams score in 5 of 10 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 games
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Vitória secured 1 win
São Paulo won 3 of these encounters, with no draws
The goal difference is 3:7 in favor of São Paulo
The last meeting was won by Vitória 1-0 on December 7, 2025
Key Players
For Vitória, Baralhas with 2 goals and 2 assists and an average rating of 7.22, and Erick with 1 goal and 2 assists with a rating of 6.93 are crucial
Renato Kayzer contributes to the offense with 2 goals and a rating of 6.83
For São Paulo, Ferreirinha with 3 goals and a rating of 7.13, Danielzinho with 1 goal and 1 assist and a rating of 7.20, and Marcos Antônio with 2 assists and a rating of 6.81 are important players
Goalkeepers
Lucas Arcanjo will guard the goal for Vitória, while Rafael will play for São Paulo
Vitória has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
São Paulo also recorded 3 clean sheets
Influences
Vitória shows a very strong defensive performance in home games, conceding an average of only 0.33 goals
This could be an advantage against São Paulo's away attacking style, which averages 1.67 goals per away game