Serie A
Corinthians - Palmeiras
04/12/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.0
1.0
0:0
16%1:1
15%0:1
13%1:0
11%0:2
7%What influences the xG?
Corinthians
Palmeiras
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
35%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Form difference: Corinthians is in a crisis (DDDLL), while Palmeiras boasts a perfect streak of 5 wins (WWWWW)
- Table situation: The clash between league leaders Palmeiras and relegation-threatened Corinthians
- Goal production: Corinthians scores only an average of 0.8 goals per home game
Risk Factors
- Corinthians scores only an average of 0.8 goals per home game (homeGoalsScoredAvg)
- Palmeiras' goal production is stalling (1.6), season average is 2.1 (advancedStats.away.description)
- Corinthians averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games (homeTacticalMetrics.avgShotsOnTarget)
Overview
Corinthians (16th place, 10 points) host Palmeiras (1st place, 25 points) in a Serie A encounter. The Paulista derby takes place on April 12, 2026, 6:30 PM. Corinthians aim to distance themselves from the relegation zone, while Palmeiras looks to defend its top spot.
Form
Corinthians' form across all competitions is DDDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This equates to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
The last match resulted in a loss (0-1 against Internacional)
Palmeiras displays an excellent form of WWWWW
This equates to 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses
The last match was won (2-1 against Bahia)
Corinthians lost their last two games, while Palmeiras is on a 5-win streak
Statistics
Corinthians averages 0.8 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.1 goals
At home, Corinthians also scores 0.8 goals and concedes 1.2 goals per home game
Palmeiras shows strong offense with an average of 2.1 goals scored per game and concedes 1.0 goals
Away from home, Palmeiras scores 2.25 goals and concedes 1.5 goals per away game
Corinthians kept 3 clean sheets, while Palmeiras recorded 2
For Corinthians, 5 matches saw both teams score, compared to 8 for Palmeiras
Head-to-Head
In 4 previous head-to-head matches, Corinthians recorded 1 win
Palmeiras won 2 of these encounters, and 1 match ended in a draw
Corinthians scored 3 goals in these duels, while Palmeiras scored 5
The last meeting on August 31, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw
Recent results indicate Palmeiras' dominance in direct matchups
Key Players
For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 3 assists, avg rating 7.21), Matheus Bidu (1 goal, 1 assist, avg rating 6.99) and Gabriel Paulista (1 goal, 0 assists, avg rating 6.99) are important players
Rodrigo Garro shows stable form with a rating of 7.16 in the last 5 games
Matheus Bidu provided 1 assist in the last 5 matches with a rating of 6.85
Gabriel Paulista is in declining form with a rating of 6.78 in the last 5 games
For Palmeiras, Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 8 assists, avg rating 7.43), José Manuel López (3 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.16) and Marlon Freitas (2 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.07) stand out
Andreas Pereira shows declining form with 3 assists in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.07
José Manuel López shows declining form with 1 assist in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.74
Marlon Freitas is in stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.19
Goalkeepers
Corinthians' goalkeeper is Hugo Souza, who recorded 3 clean sheets in 9 season appearances
For Palmeiras, Carlos Miguel is in goal, keeping 2 clean sheets in 10 season appearances
Influences
Corinthians scores an average of 0.8 goals at home and concedes 1.2 goals
Palmeiras scores an average of 2.25 goals away and concedes 1.5 goals