Serie A
Fluminense - Flamengo
04/12/2026, 09:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
11%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Fluminense
Flamengo
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
30%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates Fluminense with a 48% win probability compared to Flamengo's 23%
- Home Strength: Fluminense concedes an average of only 0.67 goals at home, while Flamengo concedes 1.75 goals per away game
- Tactical Superiority: Fluminense averaged 6.6 shots on target recently, compared to Flamengo's 3.2
Risk Factors
- Flamengo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games (tactical analysis)
- The historical head-to-head record is balanced with 2 wins for each team, suggesting an unpredictable outcome
- The pipeline predicts a draw with a probability of 30%
Overview
Fluminense (2nd place, 20 points) host Flamengo (5th place, 17 points) in a Serie A match on April 12, 2026, 11:00 PM. The fixture is an important derby with direct implications for the top spots in the league table. Both teams are fighting for a strong position.
Form
Fluminense's recent form is WLWWD, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Their last result was a 1-1 draw. Flamengo's form is WWDLW, also with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a 3-1 victory. Fluminense are currently scoring more (Avg. 2.0 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.7 goals). Flamengo are also scoring more (Avg. 2.0 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.8 goals).
Statistics
Fluminense averages 1.7 goals scored per game and concedes 1.1 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded. Flamengo averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, they score 1.75 goals and concede 1.75 goals per game. Fluminense has kept 3 clean sheets this season, as has Flamengo. For Fluminense, 7 games ended with both teams scoring, while for Flamengo it was 5.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head encounters, the record is balanced with 2 wins for Fluminense and 2 wins for Flamengo, with no draws. Fluminense scored 4 goals and Flamengo scored 3 goals. The last match was a 2-1 victory for Fluminense on November 20, 2025.
Key Players
For Fluminense, key players include Luciano Acosta with 3 goals and 3 assists, John Kennedy with 4 goals, and HĂ©rcules with 3 goals. For Flamengo, Pedro stands out with 3 goals and 2 assists, Samuel Lino with 2 goals and 1 assist, and Lucas PaquetĂĄ with 2 goals. Jefferson Savarino (0 goals, 2 assists) is not in the lineup for Fluminense.
Goalkeepers
Fluminense goalkeeper FĂĄbio made 10 appearances and kept 3 clean sheets. For Flamengo, AgustĂn Rossi played in 9 games and also achieved 3 clean sheets.
Influences
Fluminense demonstrates strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.67 goals in home matches. Tactical analysis shows Fluminense being possession-dominant in their last 5 games (62% possession), with an average of 6.6 shots on target.