Serie A
Athletico PR - Chapecoense
04/12/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
2.9
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Athletico PR
Chapecoense
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
67%
Draw
21%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
33%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis shows a high probability of 67% for an Athletico PR home win
- Chapecoense's offense is significantly weakened by the absence of Walter Clar (3 goals, 1 assist), with only 42% of the usual goal threat available
- Athletico PR shows a positive form trend with currently higher goal production (1.8 goals per game) compared to the season average (1.5 goals per game), while Chapecoense's goal production is stagnant (0.5 goals per game recently) and their away defense is extremely vulnerable (5.0 goals conceded per away game)
Risk Factors
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches and venue history
- Chapecoense recorded an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Athletico PR (6th place, 16 points) host Chapecoense (17th place, 8 points) in Serie A
The match takes place on April 12, 2026, 4:00 PM
Athletico PR aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table, while Chapecoense is battling against relegation
Form
Athletico PR's form is "WWWLL", meaning 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 games across all competitions
Athletico PR recorded 3 wins and 2 losses, with two consecutive losses recently
According to advanced analysis, Athletico PR shows a positive form trend
Chapecoense's form is "DDLLD", with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 games
Chapecoense recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with the last result being a draw
Advanced analysis identifies a negative form trend for Chapecoense
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Athletico PR averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per game
At home, they are defensively stable with an average of 1.43 goals scored and only 0.57 goals conceded per home game
The team kept 2 clean sheets and saw both teams score (BTTS) in 6 matches
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches
Chapecoense averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 goals conceded per game
Away from home, they are very vulnerable with an average of 1.0 goals scored and extremely high 5.0 goals conceded per away game
The team kept 1 clean sheet and had BTTS in 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 matches
Head-to-Head
No data is available for direct encounters between Athletico PR and Chapecoense
Key Players
For Athletico PR:
Kevin Viveros, attacker, scored 5 goals and 1 assist this season, with an average rating of 6.95
In the last 5 games, he scored 3 times in 5 appearances, confirming his stable form trend
Julimar, attacker, has 3 goals and 1 assist this season with a rating of 6.74
His form trend is stable
Dudu, midfielder, recorded 1 goal and 1 assist this season with a rating of 6.71
His form trend is stable, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
For Chapecoense:
Higor Meritão, midfielder, scored 1 goal this season with a rating of 6.85
His form trend is stable
Doma, defender, scored 1 goal this season with a rating of 6.8
His form trend is stable
Marcos Vinícius, defender, provided 1 assist this season and shows a stable form trend
Goalkeepers
Athletico PR's goalkeeper Santos has an average rating of 6.78 in 10 season appearances and recorded 2 clean sheets for his team
Chapecoense's goalkeeper Rafael Santos has an average rating of 7.19 in 2 season appearances and recorded 1 clean sheet for his team
Influences
Athletico PR scores an average of 1.43 goals at home and concedes 0.57 goals
Chapecoense concedes an average of 5.0 goals away and scores 1.0 goals