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Serie A

Remo - Vasco da Gama

04/11/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Remo
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Vasco da Gama
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
REMVDG

Remo

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.49
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap)
-0.08
Vitor Bueno not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Vasco da Gama

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.15
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Vasco da Gama's offense currently scores more often, averaging 2.0 goals in recent games, compared to Remo's season average of 1.0 goal
  • Remo is in 18th place in the table and has only achieved one win in their last five matches, indicating poor overall form
  • Vasco da Gama's matches are often high-scoring, with both teams scoring in 90% of their season games and over 2.5 goals in 70% of matches
Risk Factors
  • Vasco da Gama concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • The close mathematical probabilities (home win 33%, away win 36%) suggest an unpredictable match
Overview

Remo (18th place, 7 points) host Vasco da Gama (12th place, 12 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 9:30 PM. Remo is struggling in the lower third of the table, while Vasco da Gama aims to establish itself in mid-table. Remo urgently needs points to escape the relegation zone

Form

Remo shows a form of LLWLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last five matches. Their last game ended in a draw. Vasco da Gama has a form of DWWDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches. Their last game resulted in a loss

Statistics

Remo scores an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and concedes 1.7 goals. At home, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded per game. Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.5 goals per match and concedes 1.6 goals. In away games, Vasco da Gama averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded. For Vasco da Gama, both teams scored in 9 out of 10 matches, and 7 out of 10 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches between Remo and Vasco da Gama were found in the dataset

Key Players

For Remo, Gabriel Taliari is a key attacker with 2 seasonal goals and an average rating of 7.01 in the last 5 games. Alef Manga contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season. Jajå scored 1 seasonal goal and showed an average rating of 6.74 in his last 5 games. On Vasco da Gama's side, Thiago Mendes stands out, having scored 3 goals in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.37. Cuiabano contributed to 2 goals and 3 assists this season and has a stable form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 3 assists. Cauan Barros scored 3 times this season, with 2 goals in the last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Remo's goalkeeper Marcelo Rangel had 10 appearances this season and 1 clean sheet. Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper Léo Jardim also played 10 games but kept no clean sheets

Influences

Remo shows a more solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.86 goals compared to their overall average of 1.7. Vasco da Gama, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.0 goals away from home, which is weaker than their overall average of 1.6 goals conceded. This suggests a potential defensive vulnerability for the visiting team

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