Serie A
Internacional - Grêmio
04/11/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.7
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Internacional
Grêmio
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
57%
Draw
26%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
43%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Internacional is the favorite with a 57% home win probability according to the mathematical analysis
- Internacional shows better recent form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and a positive form trend
- Grêmio's away defense is very vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Grêmio concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game, representing a significant defensive risk
- Limited data availability for duel statistics
Overview
Internacional (14th place, 12 points) hosts Grêmio (12th place, 12 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 8:30 PM. Both teams are tied on points in the lower mid-table, making the outcome of this game important for their league standing
Form
Internacional is in good form in their last five games with three wins, one draw, and one loss (Form: LWWDW). Their last match was a win. Grêmio, however, has a weaker record in their last five matches, with one win, two draws, and two losses (Form: DWLLD). Internacional's current form shows a positive trend, while Grêmio's form indicates a negative trend
Statistics
Internacional averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season. In home games, they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Grêmio has a season average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Grêmio scores an average of 1.33 goals but concedes an alarming 3.0 goals per match. For Internacional, both teams scored in 5 out of 10 games, and for Grêmio, in 7 out of 10 games. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 out of 10 Internacional games and in 5 out of 10 Grêmio games
Head-to-Head
In four direct encounters, Internacional secured two wins, Grêmio one win, and one match ended in a draw. Internacional scored a total of 5 goals, while Grêmio scored 4. The last meeting on September 21, 2025, ended in a 2:3 away win for Grêmio. Recent head-to-head records suggest a slight dominance by Internacional
Key Players
For Internacional, Alan Patrick (2 goals, 0 assists), Vitinho (0 goals, 3 assists), and Gabriel Mercado (1 goal, 0 assists) are key players. Alan Patrick scored 1 goal in his last 3 games. Vitinho provided 1 assist in his last 5 games. Gabriel Mercado scored 1 goal in his last 4 games and shows a rising form trend. For Grêmio, Carlos Vinícius stands out with 7 goals, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games. Francis Amuzu (1 goal, 2 assists) scored once in his last 5 games. Juan Nardoni (1 goal, 1 assist) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
In goal for Internacional is Sergio Rochet, who kept 2 clean sheets in 9 season appearances. For Grêmio, Weverton is the goalkeeper, who also recorded 2 clean sheets in 10 season appearances. Both goalkeepers show similar performance in terms of clean sheets
Influences
Internacional scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 1.5 goals in home games. Grêmio, on the other hand, shows a weak defense away from home, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away game while scoring 1.33 goals