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Serie A

Cruzeiro - Bragantino

04/12/2026, 09:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Cruzeiro
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Bragantino
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

11%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CRUBRA

Cruzeiro

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.84
Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.65
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.45
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 9, 10 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Full strength squad available

Bragantino

Attack strength (1.63x league average)
+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 19, 10 places gap)
+0.06
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.03
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.03
Henry Mosquera not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

32%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Bragantino is favored by the mathematical analysis with a 38% win probability compared to 30% for Cruzeiro
  • Both teams show positive attacking form trends: Cruzeiro is currently scoring more often (2.0) than their season average (1.3)
  • Bragantino is currently scoring more often (1.2) than their season average (1.0)
  • Cruzeiro is possession-dominant at home with an average of 59% possession and 4.8 shots on target
Overview

Cruzeiro (19th place, 7 points) hosts Bragantino (9th place, 14 points) in a Serie A match on April 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

Cruzeiro is in the relegation zone and desperately needs points

Bragantino is looking to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table

Form

Cruzeiro's form across all competitions is DLDWL

Cruzeiro's last five matches resulted in a loss, a win, a draw, a loss, and a draw

Bragantino's form across all competitions is LLLWW

Bragantino's last five matches resulted in a win, a win, a loss, a loss, and a loss

Bragantino is currently on a two-game winning streak

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cruzeiro averages 1.2 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 2 goals per game

The team kept 2 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 7 matches

Bragantino averages 1.0 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.0 goals per game

Bragantino kept 4 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 3 matches

At home, Cruzeiro averages 1.14 goals scored and concedes 0.86 goals per match

Away from home, Bragantino averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 1.67 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro has 2 wins, Bragantino has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw

Cruzeiro scored 5 goals, while Bragantino scored 4 goals

The last encounter on September 21, 2025, ended with a 2-1 victory for Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro has been the more dominant team in recent direct matchups

Key Players

For Cruzeiro, midfielder Christian is a key player with 3 season goals and 1 assist, showing a rising form trend

Matheus Pereira, also a midfielder, has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist, but his form is declining

Attacker Néiser Villarreal contributes with 2 season goals and shows stable form

For Bragantino, defender Juninho Capixaba is a notable player with 2 goals and 2 assists

Forward Lucas Barbosa has contributed 2 goals and 1 assist, displaying stable form

Attacker Isidro Pitta is also an important offensive player with 2 goals

Goalkeepers

Cruzeiro's goalkeeper Matheus Cunha has made 6 season appearances

Cruzeiro has recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Bragantino's goalkeeper Tiago Volpi has featured in 3 season games

Bragantino has recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Cruzeiro scored 8 goals and conceded 6 goals in 7 home games

Bragantino scored 3 goals and conceded 5 goals in 3 away games

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