Serie A
Botafogo - Coritiba
04/12/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
10%1:0
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Botafogo
Coritiba
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
32%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Extremely balanced prediction: The model forecasts a win probability of 34% for Botafogo and 35% for Coritiba, with a 32% chance for a draw
- Coritiba's strong away defense: The team concedes an average of only 0.86 goals per away game
- Botafogo's improved home defense: At home, the team concedes an average of only 1.25 goals, significantly better than their season average
Risk Factors
- Coritiba's offensive struggles: The team averaged only 0.8 goals and 3.4 shots on target in their last five games
- Botafogo's general defensive vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 2.11 goals per game over the entire season
Overview
Botafogo (15th place, 12 points) host Coritiba (7th place, 15 points) in a Serie A match. The game is scheduled for April 12, 2026, 7:00 PM. Botafogo is fighting to move away from the relegation zone, while Coritiba aims for a higher league position. The mathematical analysis predicts a very balanced match.
Form
Botafogo's form in their last five matches is LWLWW, with three wins and two losses. Botafogo has won their last two games. Coritiba shows a form of WWLDD, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Coritiba has drawn their last two games. According to advanced statistics, Botafogo's form trend is stable, while Coritiba's form is rated as negative. Botafogo recently averaged 1.8 goals per game and conceded 2 goals, which aligns with their season average of 1.78 goals and 2.11 goals conceded. Coritiba, however, recently averaged 0.8 goals per game and conceded 0.8 goals, which is below their season average of 1.1 goals and 1 goal conceded. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Botafogo has scored an average of 1.78 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 2.11 goals per game. At home, Botafogo scored an average of 1.75 goals and conceded 1.25 goals. They kept one clean sheet and had both teams score in six matches. Coritiba recorded a season average of 1.1 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game. Away from home, Coritiba scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded only 0.86 goals per away match. They kept their defense clean in three games and had both teams score in four matches.
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between the two teams
Key Players
For Botafogo, Danilo stands out with five season goals and one assist, contributing two goals in his last five games. Alexander Barboza recorded one season goal and two assists, with one goal in his last five appearances. Arthur Cabral scored two season goals and one assist, also finding the net once in his last three games. Not nominated for Botafogo are Alex Telles (2G/0A), Matheus Martins (2G/0A), and Edenilson (1G/1A). For Coritiba, Lucas Ronier has shown solid performance with one season goal and two assists. Breno Lopes scored three season goals and one assist, providing one assist in his last five games. Josué has been involved in three assists this season.
Goalkeepers
Botafogo's goalkeeper, Raul, has made six appearances this season and recorded one clean sheet. For Coritiba, Pedro Rangel has featured in seven season games and kept three clean sheets.
Influences
Botafogo scored an average of 1.75 goals at home and conceded 1.25 goals. Coritiba scored an average of 1.14 goals away and conceded 0.86 goals. The dataset does not contain information on specific venue or weather influences.