Serie A
Mirassol - Bahia
04/11/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Mirassol
Bahia
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
29%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- League Position: Bahia is in 5th place, while Mirassol is at the bottom of the table
- Recent Form: Bahia shows better form with 'WWLWL' compared to Mirassol's 'LLLLL' streak
- Mathematical Prediction: The analysis slightly favors Bahia with a 39% win probability
Risk Factors
- Historical Home Strength: Mirassol won the last direct encounter at home with a 5-1 score
- Squad Impact: Mirassol is missing Shaylon (1G/1A) and Alesson (0G/2A), representing 87% of usual starting XI goal threat
Overview
Mirassol (20th place, 6 points) hosts Bahia (5th place, 17 points) in a Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 10:30 PM
Mirassol is struggling at the bottom of the table and urgently needs points
Bahia aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table
Form
Mirassol shows very poor form across all competitions with 'LLLLL'
The team lost its last 5 consecutive matches
The most recent result was a 0-1 defeat against Bragantino
Bahia has mixed form with 'WWLWL'
The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in its last 5 games
The last outing ended in a 1-2 loss against Palmeiras
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Mirassol scores an average of 1.11 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals per game
The team kept no clean sheets and 5 matches saw over 2.5 goals
Bahia scores an average of 1.44 goals per game and concedes 1.00 goals per game
Bahia kept 4 clean sheets and 4 matches saw over 2.5 goals
Mirassol scored an average of 1.2 goals at home and conceded 1.4 goals
Bahia scored an average of 1.67 goals away and conceded 1.67 goals
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, Mirassol has 1 win and there was 1 draw
Mirassol scored 6 goals, Bahia 2 goals
Mirassol won the last encounter at home with a 5-1 score on August 31, 2025
Mirassol has been dominant in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Mirassol, Igor Formiga (3 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.06 rating) and Negueba (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.33 rating) are important players
Eduardo scored 1 goal with no assists and an avg rating of 6.75
For Bahia, Luciano Juba (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.20 rating) and Jean Lucas (2 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.89 rating) are key
Everaldo has 3 goals and 0 assists with an avg rating of 7.18
Goalkeepers
Mirassol's goalkeeper, Walter, has 0 clean sheets this season
LĆ©o Vieira, Bahia's goalkeeper, recorded 2 clean sheets in his away games
Influences
Mirassol scores an average of 1.2 goals at home and concedes 1.4 goals
Bahia scores an average of 1.67 goals away and concedes 1.67 goals