Serie A
Santos - Atlético Mineiro
04/11/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
11%0:1
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Santos
Atlético Mineiro
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
33%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Tactical Strength: Atlético Mineiro averaged 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Santos's 2.2
- Current Form: Atlético Mineiro enters the game with two consecutive wins, while Santos's form is negative
- Model Tendency: The mathematical model indicates a 69% chance for a home win or a draw for Santos
Risk Factors
- Offensive Weakness: Santos averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Low Goal Probability: The pipeline predicts a low probability of 37% for over 2.5 goals
Overview
Santos (15th place, 10 points) host Atlético Mineiro (8th place, 14 points) in a Serie A match on April 11, 2026, 8:00 PM
The home team is struggling in the lower third of the table, while the guests are positioned in the mid-table
For Santos, the goal is to move away from the relegation spots
Form
Santos' form is inconsistent (DLDWL), with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games
Their last result was a 1-3 away loss against Flamengo
Atlético Mineiro shows better form (LWLWW), with three wins and two losses in their last five matches
The team enters this game on a two-game winning streak
Santos' form trend is negative, while Atlético Mineiro's form is stable
Statistics
Santos has scored an average of 1.3 goals per game this season and conceded 1.6 goals
In home games, Santos scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1.0 goals
Atlético Mineiro recorded a season average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded
Away from home, Atlético Mineiro scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 1.5 goals
Santos kept two clean sheets, Atlético Mineiro kept three
Both teams scored in 8 of Santos's games and in 4 of Atlético Mineiro's games
Santos' goal production is faltering (1.3), the season average is 1.4
Atlético Mineiro consistently scores (~1.4 goals per game)
Head-to-Head
In two head-to-head encounters, Santos recorded one win, while Atlético Mineiro has not won any, with one draw
Santos scored 3 goals in these matches, Atlético Mineiro scored 1 goal
The last game ended in a 1-1 draw on September 14, 2025
Santos has been the more dominant home team in recent direct duels
Key Players
Santos' offense is led by Neymar (3 goals, 2 assists in 4 games, 7.65 rating) and Gabriel Barbosa (3 goals in 5 games, 7.16 rating)
Goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão shows a rising form (7.93 rating in the last 5 games)
For Atlético Mineiro, Victor Hugo (3 goals, 1 assist in 10 games, 7.13 rating) is an important midfielder
Tomás Cuello contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 10 games (7.01 rating)
Goalkeeper Everson showed a rating of 7.11 in 10 games
Goalkeepers
Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão played 10 games and recorded 2 clean sheets
Atlético Mineiro's goalkeeper Everson played in 10 games and managed 3 clean sheets
Influences
Santos averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded at home
Atlético Mineiro averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded away