Serie A
Vasco da Gama - São Paulo
04/18/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Vasco da Gama
São Paulo
The Lab
- 1Vasco da Gama: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2São Paulo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 3São Paulo with Pablo Maia: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4São Paulo: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Vasco da Gama: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
32%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis shows a 40% probability for a home win
- Vasco da Gama displays a positive form development with higher current goal production (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.5 goals)
- São Paulo is currently struggling with a declining goal production, averaging 1.0 goals compared to 1.4 goals season average
Risk Factors
- São Paulo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Marcos Antônio is missing for São Paulo (0 goals, 2 assists)
- São Paulo has lost 3 of their last 5 away games
Overview
Vasco da Gama (13th place, 13 points) host São Paulo (3rd place, 20 points) in Serie A
Kick-off is on April 18, 2026, 10:30 PM
São Paulo is fighting for a top spot, while Vasco da Gama aims to establish itself in midfield
Form
Vasco da Gama's recent form (WWDLD) shows a mix of wins and draws
In their last five matches, they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against Remo
São Paulo is in a more challenging period (LLDWL)
Their away form in the last five games shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
They recently lost 0-2 away to Vitória
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Vasco da Gama averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded per game
Both teams scored in 10 out of 11 matches
7 of 11 games ended with over 2.5 goals
In home games, their average is 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded
São Paulo scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes only 0.82 goals per game
They have kept 3 clean sheets this season
In away games, São Paulo averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, the record between Vasco da Gama and São Paulo is even
Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with no draws recorded
The goal difference is also balanced at 7:7
The last encounter on November 2, 2025, saw São Paulo win 2-0 away
Key Players
For Vasco da Gama, Cuiabano (2 goals, 3 assists) and David (2 goals, 2 assists) are key offensive players
Cuiabano has shown stable form recently with 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games
Thiago Mendes contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season and is in stable form
For São Paulo, Jonathan Calleri is the top scorer with 6 season goals
He scored 3 goals in his last 5 games, but his form is declining
Sabino (1 goal) and Artur (1 assist) are other important players
Marcos Antônio (0 goals, 2 assists) is not nominated for São Paulo
Goalkeepers
Vasco da Gama's goalkeeper, Léo Jardim, made 11 season appearances with 0 clean sheets
São Paulo's goalkeeper Rafael also played 11 times and recorded 3 clean sheets
Influences
Vasco da Gama scores an average of 1.5 goals per home game
At the same time, the team concedes an average of 1.33 goals in their own stadium
São Paulo scores an average of 1.25 goals in away matches
São Paulo's away defense concedes an average of 1.5 goals