Serie A
Palmeiras - Athletico PR
04/19/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.2
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
14%0:0
13%2:0
10%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Palmeiras
Athletico PR
The Lab
- 1Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- 2Palmeiras: 77% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
- 3Athletico PR with JĂĄdson: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Athletico PR: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Palmeiras with RamĂłn Sosa: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
32%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Palmeiras' impressive home strength: an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded
- Palmeiras' current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games
- Athletico PR's defensive weakness away from home with an average of 3.0 goals conceded per match
Risk Factors
- Limited starting lineup strength for Palmeiras: Only 88% of the usual goal threat is available, as Marlon Freitas (2G/1A) and Mauricio (1G/1A) are not in the lineup
- Reduced starting lineup strength for Athletico PR: Only 80% of the usual goal threat is available, as Julimar (3G/1A) and GastĂłn BenavĂdez (0G/3A) are not in the lineup
- The pipeline prognosis analysis only predicts Palmeiras with a 47% chance of a home win and 32% for a draw
Overview
Palmeiras (1st place, 26 points) host Athletico PR (6th place, 19 points) in Serie A
The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 11:30 PM
Palmeiras aims to consolidate their league lead, while Athletico PR seeks to stay connected to the top group
Form
Palmeiras shows excellent form with "WWWWD" from their last five games across all competitions
This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 draw
Athletico PR, however, displays an inconsistent form of "WWLLW", with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Palmeiras scores an average of 1.91 goals per game this season and concedes 0.91 goals
Their goal production has recently slowed slightly (1.8 goals per game compared to 2.1 season goals)
At home, the average is 2.0 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game
Athletico PR scores an average of 1.55 times and concedes 1.18 goals per game
Athletico PR is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.6 goals per game)
Away, they average 1.67 goals scored and an alarming 3.0 goals conceded per match
Palmeiras had 3 clean sheets, Athletico PR also had 3
For Palmeiras, over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 games, for Athletico PR in 6 matches
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, the record between Palmeiras and Athletico PR is even
Both teams have won one match each
The goal difference is 2:2
The last encounter was won by Athletico PR at home with 2:0 on September 1, 2024
Key Players
For Palmeiras, Andreas Pereira (1 goal, 8 assists in season, 3 assists in last 5 games), José Manuel López (3 goals, 3 assists in season) and Jhon Arias (3 goals in season, 2 goals in last 5 games) are in the starting lineup
For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros (6 goals, 1 assist in season, 3 goals in last 5 games), Lucas Esquivel (1 goal, 3 assists in season) and Stiven Mendoza (4 goals in season, 1 goal in last 5 games) are in the squad
Dudu shows a rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Carlos Miguel is the goalkeeper for Palmeiras and achieved 3 clean sheets this season
For Athletico PR, Santos is in goal, who also recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Palmeiras benefits from a strong home record with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded per home game
Athletico PR, however, appears more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 3.0 goals