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Serie A

Bragantino - Remo

04/19/2026, 09:30 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Bragantino
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Remo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
BRAREM

Bragantino

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.46
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 19, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Henry Mosquera not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)

Remo

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 12, 7 places gap)
-0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.03
Alef Manga on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 37% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Remo with ZĂ© Welison: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Bragantino with Gabriel: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Remo lacks crucial attacking threat: Only 37% of the usual starting XI's strength is available without Alef Manga (2G/3A)
  • Remo exhibits an extremely weak away defense, conceding an average of 3.67 goals per away game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 48% for Bragantino, who currently show a positive form trend
Risk Factors
  • Bragantino's inconsistent form in the last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 losses
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a relatively high draw probability of 30%
  • The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model
Overview

Bragantino (12th place, 14 points) host Remo (19th place, 8 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 8:30 PM

Bragantino aims to improve its mid-table position

Remo is in a relegation battle and desperately needs points

Form

Bragantino shows inconsistent form with 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 games (Form: LLWWL)

The last result was a loss

Remo has drawn 2, won 1, and lost 2 of their last 5 games (Form: LWLDD)

The team managed two draws in their recent away matches

Statistics

Bragantino averaged 1.0 goal scored per game and conceded 1.09 goals per game this season

The team recorded 4 clean sheets

At home, Bragantino averages 1.0 goal scored and concedes 0.71 goals per home game

Remo also averages 1.0 goal scored per game but conceded 1.64 goals per game

Remo kept only 1 clean sheet

In away matches, Remo concedes an alarming 3.67 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches between Bragantino and Remo were found in the available data

Key Players

For Bragantino, key players include Juninho Capixaba (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.26 rating), Lucas Barbosa (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.1 rating), and Isidro Pitta (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.6 rating)

For Remo, Gabriel Taliari (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.91 rating), JajĂĄ (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg. 6.64 rating), and Marllon (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg. 6.7 rating) are noteworthy

Juninho Capixaba's form trend is declining, while José Andrés Hurtado and Vinicinho show a rising form trend

Gabriel Taliari shows stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games for Remo

Goalkeepers

Bragantino relies on Tiago Volpi, who has an average rating of 7.38 in 4 season appearances and contributed to 4 clean sheets for Bragantino

Remo's goalkeeper Marcelo Rangel has an average rating of 6.92 in 11 appearances and contributed to 1 clean sheet

Influences

Bragantino averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.71 goals conceded at home

Remo, on the other hand, concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away game

Home advantage could play an important role for Bragantino

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