đŸ‡§đŸ‡·

Serie A

Flamengo - Bahia

04/19/2026, 10:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Flamengo
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Bahia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
FLABAH

Flamengo

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.55
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.21
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)

Bahia

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Everaldo on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Flamengo: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Flamengo with Luiz AraĂșjo: 9.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Flamengo: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Bahia: 78% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Bahia with Michel AraĂșjo: 7.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

28%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Flamengo is favored with a home win probability of approximately 50% according to the mathematical analysis, compared to Bahia's 23%
  • Flamengo's extremely strong home defense (Avg. 0.4 goals conceded) faces an offensively solid away team
  • Flamengo is in better form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) than Bahia (3 wins, 2 losses)
Risk Factors
  • Flamengo has several absentees, including J. Carrascal Guardo (Red Card Suspension), E. Pulgar FarfĂĄn (Suspended), and J. Frello Filho (Calf Injury)
Overview

Flamengo (2nd place, 20 points) host Bahia (5th place, 20 points) in a Serie A match

The game is scheduled for April 19, 2026, 00:30 UTC

Both teams are tied on points at the top of the table, vying for a strong position

Form

Flamengo's form in their last five matches is WDLWW

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last fixture resulted in a win

Bahia's form in their last five matches is WLWLW

They registered 3 wins and 2 losses

Their most recent fixture also ended in a win

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Flamengo averages 1.8 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.0 goals

In home games, Flamengo is offensively strong with an average of 1.8 goals scored and defensively stable with 0.4 goals conceded

Bahia averages 1.5 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.0 goals

In away games, Bahia scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.2 goals

Flamengo has seen over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches, Bahia in 5 of 10 matches

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Flamengo secured 3 wins and Bahia 1 win

Flamengo scored a total of 5 goals, while Bahia scored 2 goals

The home team recently dominated the head-to-head encounters

The last match on October 05, 2025, was won by Bahia away with a score of 1:0

Key Players

Flamengo features Pedro in attack, contributing 5 goals and 2 assists in 10 season appearances

Samuel Lino has shown his quality with 2 goals and 3 assists in 10 games

Lucas PaquetĂĄ scored 2 goals in 9 matches

For Bahia, Luciano Juba is the top scorer with 4 goals and 1 assist in 10 season appearances

Jean Lucas has 2 goals and 2 assists in 10 games

Willian José scored 2 goals in 9 matches

Goalkeepers

AgustĂ­n Rossi, Flamengo's goalkeeper, has made 10 season appearances

Flamengo has kept 3 clean sheets this season

LĂ©o Vieira, Bahia's goalkeeper, has made 3 season appearances

Bahia has kept 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Flamengo performs strongly at home, averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.