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Serie A

Chapecoense - Botafogo

04/18/2026, 09:30 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Chapecoense
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Botafogo
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CHABOT

Chapecoense

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.44
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.2 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.26
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 11, 8 places gap)
-0.13
Walter Clar on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
52% of goal output missing (only 48% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Botafogo

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.06
Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.04
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 19, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.01
Álvaro Montoro on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Botafogo: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Chapecoense with Everton: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Botafogo with Edenilson: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Botafogo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Botafogo: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Chapecoense's offense is significantly weakened: Only 48% of the usual goal threat is available without Walter Clar
  • Stark contrast in form: Botafogo with 3 wins in their last 5 games, while Chapecoense remained winless
  • Mathematical analysis favors a home win with a probability of 47%
Risk Factors
  • Chapecoense averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Botafogo concedes an average of 2.8 goals per away game
Overview

Chapecoense (19th place, 8 points) host Botafogo (11th place, 13 points) in Serie A

The match takes place on April 18, 2026, 6:30 PM

Chapecoense is in a relegation battle and desperately needs points

Botafogo aims to consolidate its position in the middle of the table

Form

Chapecoense recently showed poor form with a DLLDL sequence

This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last five matches

Their last game ended in a loss

Botafogo presents itself in better form with WLWWD

This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from the last five encounters

Their last match ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Chapecoense scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 1.8 goals

In home games, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.22 goals conceded

Botafogo averaged 1.8 goals scored per game and conceded 2.1 goals

Away from home, Botafogo scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 2.8 goals

Chapecoense kept 1 clean sheet, while Botafogo also kept 1 clean sheet

Both teams scored in 5 Chapecoense games and 7 Botafogo games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 Chapecoense games and 9 Botafogo games

The mathematical analysis predicts 1.53 goals for Chapecoense and 1.04 goals for Botafogo

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not contain any historical head-to-head matches between the teams

Key Players

Chapecoense: Higor Meritão (1 goal, 0 assists), Doma (1 goal, 0 assists), Everton (0 goals, 1 assist)

Botafogo: Danilo (6 goals, 1 assist), Arthur Cabral (3 goals, 1 assist), Alex Telles (2 goals, 0 assists)

Álvaro Montoro (0 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated

Goalkeepers

Chapecoense goalkeeper Rafael Santos recorded 1 clean sheet so far

Botafogo goalkeeper Neto also achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Chapecoense averages 1.0 goals in home games and concedes 1.22 goals

Botafogo averages 1.8 goals away from home and concedes 2.8 goals

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