Serie A
Cruzeiro - Grêmio
04/18/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.1
0.7
1:0
15%0:0
14%1:1
14%2:0
11%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Cruzeiro
Grêmio
The Lab
- 1Cruzeiro with Kauã Moraes: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Grêmio with Erick Noriega: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Grêmio: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Cruzeiro: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
31%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Cruzeiro with 50% probability and 1.36 expected home goals
- Cruzeiro's stronger home performance with 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded meets Grêmio's weak away defense with 3.00 goals conceded
- Cruzeiro dominated the last four head-to-head matches with three wins and one draw
Risk Factors
- Grêmio concedes an average of 3.00 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Cruzeiro has a high season average of 1.91 goals conceded per game (goalsConcededAvg)
- Grêmio averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Cruzeiro (17th place, 10 points) host Grêmio (12th place, 13 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 1:30 AM. Cruzeiro is in a relegation battle and desperately needs points, while Grêmio aims for a mid-table finish.
Form
Cruzeiro's form across all competitions is: LDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). In their last five games, they recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their last game resulted in a win. Grêmio's form across all competitions is: WLLDD. They achieved one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, with the last two games ending in draws.
Statistics
Cruzeiro averages 1.27 goals scored per game and concedes 1.91 goals. At home, they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded. They kept two clean sheets in home games. Grêmio also has a season average of 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded. Away from home, they score 1.33 goals and concede an average of 3.00 goals. Grêmio kept one clean sheet in away games. In Cruzeiro's matches, both teams scored seven times, and eight games had over 2.5 goals. For Grêmio, both teams scored in seven games, and five games ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In four head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro dominated with three wins, while Grêmio failed to secure a victory, and one match ended in a draw. Cruzeiro scored eight goals, Grêmio two. The last direct encounter on November 5, 2025, was won by Cruzeiro with a 1:0 score. Cruzeiro has been dominant in recent matchups.
Key Players
For Cruzeiro, midfielder Christian (4 season goals, 1 assist) shows rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Matheus Pereira (2 season goals, 1 assist) is another important midfielder with stable form. Striker Kaio Jorge scored 3 goals in 4 of his last 5 games with stable performance. For Grêmio, striker Carlos Vinícius is the top scorer with 7 season goals. Francis Amuzu (1 season goal, 2 assists) and Juan Nardoni (1 season goal, 1 assist) are other relevant players.
Goalkeepers
Matheus Cunha is Cruzeiro's goalkeeper and has achieved two clean sheets this season. Weverton is Grêmio's goalkeeper, who has recorded three clean sheets this season. Matheus Cunha had an average rating of 6.44 over the season, while Weverton achieved an average rating of 6.94.
Influences
Cruzeiro demonstrates a better defense at home, conceding an average of 0.88 goals per game, compared to 1.91 for their season average. Grêmio, however, concedes an average of 3.00 goals away from home, which is significantly higher than their season average of 1.27 goals conceded. This indicates a potential home advantage for Cruzeiro.