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Serie A

Internacional - Mirassol

04/19/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Internacional
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Mirassol
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
INTMIR

Internacional

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.55
Rising form (1.5 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 20, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Johan Carbonero on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Mirassol

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 13, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Negueba not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mirassol with Antonio Galeano: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Internacional with Rodrigo Villagra: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a 54% home win probability for Internacional
  • Form difference: Internacional is unbeaten in 5 games, while Mirassol suffered 5 consecutive losses
  • Tactical contrast: Internacional prefers a counter-attacking style with an average of 42% possession, while Mirassol plays a possession-dominant game (58%)
Risk Factors
  • Mirassol has recently dominated in head-to-head matches
  • Mirassol has not achieved any clean sheets this season so far
Overview

Internacional (13th place, 13 points) host Mirassol (20th place, 6 points) on April 19, 2026, 3:00 PM in Serie A

The hosts aim to move away from the relegation zone and climb the table

Mirassol is in a critical position at the bottom of the table, fighting for every point

Form

Internacional shows good form with WWDWD in their last five matches

The team secured 3 wins and 2 draws, without a single loss

Their last match ended in a draw

Mirassol, on the other hand, is in a crisis with five consecutive losses (LLLLL)

The team has not recorded a win or a draw in their last five games

Currently, Mirassol is on a negative run of 5 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Internacional scored an average of 0.82 goals and conceded 0.91 goals per game this season

At home, Internacional scored 4 goals and conceded 6 goals in 5 matches

Mirassol averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded per match this season

Away from home, Mirassol scored 4 goals and conceded 7 goals in 4 matches

Internacional kept 3 clean sheets, while Mirassol has achieved no clean sheets so far

Both teams scored in 5 of Internacional's games and 6 of Mirassol's games

Head-to-Head

In 2 previous head-to-head matches, there has been one win for Mirassol and one draw

Internacional has not won any of these matches

Mirassol scored 4 goals and Internacional 2 goals

The last encounter saw Mirassol win 3-1 on October 15, 2025

Mirassol has dominated recent direct encounters

Key Players

For Internacional, Alan Patrick (2 goals, 0 assists), Vitinho (0 goals, 3 assists), and Rafael Borré (1 goal, 0 assists) are important players

For Mirassol, Igor Formiga (3 goals, 0 assists), Shaylon (1 goal, 1 assist), and Alesson (0 goals, 2 assists) stand out

Goalkeepers

Internacional starts with Anthoni in goal, who recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Mirassol relies on Walter, who has no clean sheets this season

Influences

Internacional scored 4 goals at home and conceded 6 goals

Mirassol scored 4 goals away and conceded 7 goals

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