Serie A
Santos - Fluminense
04/19/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
13%0:1
11%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Santos
Fluminense
The Lab
- 1Santos: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Santos: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Santos with Gabriel Bontempo: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Santos: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 5Fluminense with Yeferson Soteldo: 9.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
33%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- League Position: Fluminense is significantly higher in 3rd place compared to Santos in 14th place
- Fluminense Absences: Only 53% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat is available, without Luciano Acosta (3G/3A), John Kennedy (4G/0A), AgustĂn Canobbio (3G/1A), and RenĂȘ (0G/2A)
- Tactical Difference: Fluminense dominates with 59% possession and 5.8 shots on target, while Santos averages only 2.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Limited data availability for historical venue results
- Santos averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Santos (14th place, 13 points) host Fluminense (3rd place, 20 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 19, 2026, 7:00 PM. Fluminense is fighting for the top of the table, while Santos is positioned in the mid-table.
Form
Santos' form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in the last five games is LDWLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match was a 1-0 win against Atlético Mineiro. Fluminense shows a form of LWWDL in their last five games, also with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. They lost their last game 1-2 against Flamengo.
Statistics
Santos has scored an average of 1.27 goals per game this season and conceded 1.45 goals. At home, they averaged 1.33 goals scored and only 0.83 goals conceded per home game. They kept 3 clean sheets overall. Fluminense is more offensively potent with an average of 1.64 goals scored and concedes an average of 1.18 goals. Away from home, they averaged 1.75 goals scored and also 1.75 goals conceded. Fluminense also managed 3 clean sheets this season. Santos' goal production is stalling (averaging 1.3 goals recently), with a season average of 1.4 goals. Fluminense consistently scores around 1.6 goals per game.
Head-to-Head
In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, Fluminense secured 1 win and there was 1 draw. Santos has not yet won against Fluminense. The goal difference stands at 1-0 in favor of Fluminense. The last encounter on August 31, 2025, ended in a goalless 0-0 draw. Fluminense has been the more dominant team in recent meetings.
Key Players
For Santos, Neymar (3 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.58), Gabriel Barbosa (3 goals, 1 assist, average rating 7.35), and Moisés (2 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.89) are key players with stable form. For Fluminense, Jefferson Savarino (1 goal, 0 assists, average rating 7.18), Hércules (2 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.99), and Rodrigo Castillo (2 goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.83) stand out, also showing stable form.
Goalkeepers
Santos' goalkeeper Gabriel BrazĂŁo has played 11 games and kept 3 clean sheets. Fluminense's goalkeeper FĂĄbio also featured in 11 matches and achieved 3 clean sheets.
Influences
Santos displays a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.83 goals per game. Fluminense is strong offensively away from home, scoring an average of 1.75 goals per game.