Serie A
Vitória - Corinthians
04/18/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
1.9
0.7
0:0
16%1:0
16%1:1
14%2:0
11%0:1
9%What influences the xG?
Vitória
Corinthians
The Lab
- 1Vitória with Caíque Gonçalves: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Corinthians with Allan: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
33%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
59%
Under 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
31%
Under 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Vitória with a 46% probability
- Vitória boasts a strong home defense, conceding an average of only 0.29 goals per home game
- Corinthians averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
- Corinthians are missing 38% of their season goals (63% of goal threat available)
- Vitória's goal production is declining according to analysis, currently at 0.8 compared to a season average of 1.1
- Corinthians have achieved only 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Overview
Vitória (10th place, 14 points) host Corinthians (16th place, 11 points) in Serie A
The match is scheduled for April 19, 2026, 1:00 AM
Vitória is in the middle of the table, while Corinthians is near the relegation zone and fighting to avoid relegation
Form
Vitória's form is LWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently
Vitória won their last match 2-0 against São Paulo
Corinthians' form is DDLLD
This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
Corinthians last drew 0-0 against Palmeiras
Statistics
Vitória scored an average of 1.1 goals and conceded 1.4 goals per game this season
Corinthians recorded an average of 0.73 goals and 1 goal conceded per game
At home, Vitória's defense is strong, conceding only 0.29 goals on average and scoring 8 goals in 7 home games
Vitória kept 4 clean sheets at home
Away, Corinthians scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded 1 goal per game
Corinthians kept 2 clean sheets away from home
Both teams scored in 4 of Vitória's matches and 5 of Corinthians' matches
3 of Vitória's games ended with over 2.5 goals, compared to 2 for Corinthians
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the teams
Vitória has no wins, while Corinthians secured 3 wins and 1 draw
The goal difference is 3:6 in favor of Corinthians
The last encounter on October 25, 2025, saw Corinthians win away with a 1-0 score
Key Players
For Vitória, Baralhas (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg 7.2 rating), Matheuzinho (2 goals, Avg 6.84 rating), and Ramon (2 goals, Avg 6.69 rating) are key players
All three players show stable form
For Corinthians, Rodrigo Garro (1 goal, 3 assists, Avg 7.16 rating), Yuri Alberto (1 goal, Avg 6.83 rating), and Matheus Bidu (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg 6.96 rating) stand out
Rodrigo Garro and Yuri Alberto show stable form, as does Matheus Bidu
Goalkeepers
Vitória's goalkeeper Lucas Arcanjo made 7 season appearances with an average rating of 7.09 and kept 4 clean sheets
For Corinthians, Hugo Souza played in 10 season matches, achieved an average rating of 6.92, and kept 4 clean sheets
Influences
Vitória benefits from a strong home defense, conceding only 2 goals in 7 home games
The home team scored an average of 1.14 goals at home
Corinthians, on the other hand, scored an average of 0.8 goals away and conceded 1 goal per game