Serie A
Athletico PR - Vitória
04/26/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.1
0.7
1:0
16%0:0
14%1:1
13%2:0
12%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Athletico PR
Vitória
The Lab
- 1Athletico PR with Julimar: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Vitória with Caíque Gonçalves: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Athletico PR: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
31%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: Mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Athletico PR with 53% probability
- Athletico PR's home strength: The team scores an average of 1.5 goals at home and concedes only 0.5 goals
- Vitória's away weakness: Vitória concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Vitória are missing key players such as Baralhas (2G/3A) and Renato Kayzer (2G/0A), leaving only 57% of their usual goal threat available
- Vitória concedes an average of 4.0 goals per away game
Overview
Athletico PR (6th place, 19 points) host Vitória (12th place, 15 points) in Serie A. The match takes place on April 26, 2026, 10:30 PM. Athletico PR aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table, while Vitória seeks to close the gap to the top ranks.
Form
Athletico PR's form in the last five games is WLLWL, consisting of 2 wins and 3 losses, with the last result being a loss. Vitória has a form of WLDWD in their last five matches, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The last result was a draw.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Athletico PR scores an average of 1.42 goals per game this season and concedes 1.17 goals. At home, Athletico PR is stronger offensively with an average of 1.5 goals per home game and a solid defense conceding only 0.5 goals. Vitória scores an average of 1.0 goal and concedes 1.27 goals per match this season. Away, Vitória's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 4.0 goals per away game, while scoring 1.0 goal. Both teams scored in 6 of Athletico PR's games and in 4 of Vitória's games. Athletico PR consistently scores (~1.4 goals per game), while Vitória consistently scores (~1.0 goals per game).
Head-to-Head
In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, both Athletico PR and Vitória secured one win each, with no draws. Both teams scored 2 goals each. The last encounter saw Vitória win away with a score of 1:2 on November 2, 2024.
Key Players
For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros (6 goals, 1 assist), Stiven Mendoza (4 goals, 0 assists), and Lucas Esquivel (1 goal, 3 assists) are key players in the starting lineup. For Vitória, Ramon (2 goals, 0 assists), Matheuzinho (2 goals, 0 assists), and Erick (1 goal, 2 assists) are crucial in the starting XI.
Goalkeepers
Athletico PR's goalkeeper, Santos, has kept 3 clean sheets in 12 appearances this season. For Vitória, goalkeeper Lucas Arcanjo has recorded 5 clean sheets in 8 appearances.
Influences
Athletico PR shows solid home strength with an average of 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded in home games. In contrast, Vitória exhibits significant away weakness, with an average of 1.0 goal scored and 4.0 goals conceded in away games.